By Sean Jones: Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin have two months to go before they meet for their trilogy match on September 17th on DAZN PPV at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
Golovkin, 40, is in a position where he can topple Canelo’s career on the night if he’s astute enough to follow the simple blueprint created by Dmitry Bivol.
How Golovkin can beat Canelo:
1. Fight at a fast pace
2. Throw combinations of 3 to 7 punches
There are questions about whether Canelo’s recent loss to Dmitry Bivol will hurt his performance against GGG (42-1-1, 37 KOs) on September 17th.
The four years of bad habits that Canelo had picked up since his second fight with Gennadiy in 2018 were exposed by the highly technical WBA light heavyweight champion Bivol (20-0, 11 KOs).
Canelo looked like he didn’t belong inside the same ring with Bivol, and he was fortunate he wasn’t knocked out.
Looking at the three scorecards turned in by the judges for the Canelo-Bivol fight, you’d think it was a highly competitive razor-close affair, with Bivol barely edging it by a 115-113, 115-113, and 115-113 tally.
In reality, Canelo fought well enough to win one round in the fight and should have lost 11-1. It was that one-sided and easily the worst performance of Canelo’s career by a mile.
Floyd Mayweather’s schooling of Canelo way back in 2013 wasn’t close to what Bivol did to the famous Mexican star on May 7th.
Canelo fights like a little heavyweight, walking forward behind a high guard, throwing one punch at a time, and tiring out almost immediately if his opponents don’t fall over.
That style will not work against Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs), and it could get Canelo knocked out if GGG had it in him to let his hands go.
The recently turned 32-year-old Canelo will be the favorite coming into the fight, as you would expect, because Golovkin is 40-years-old, and hasn’t shined in any of his last four contests.
Golovkin’s hand speed has slowed, and he looked tired & old in his last bout on April 9th in his unification fight against WBA middleweight champion Ryota Murata.
It’s fair to say that if Golovkin similarly performs against Canelo as he did against Murata, he probably won’t make it past the sixth round.
— Matchroom Boxing (@MatchroomBoxing) July 17, 2022
It’s expected that Canelo will be angry, not because of the trash-talking that Golovkin has done over the years, but because of his one-sided loss to Bivol.
Canelo will likely be on the attack from the outset, trying to knock out Golovkin with every single shot.
Canelo may learn from his loss to Bivol and copy his fighting style by using movement and sustained combinations against GGG. If Canelo can fight like that, Golovkin’s goose will be cooked on September 17th.
The way Golovkin looked against Murata, he’ll fold if Canelo throws a flurry of shots against him at any point in the fight. Canelo’s inability to throw a lot of shots and fight at a fast pace may save Golovkin in this fight.