By Joss Gooseman: We are just a day away from what is arguably the biggest fight of the year.
A fight for the historic undisputed and unified champion of the 168 division.
Analysis:
It has been said that Floyd Mayweather showed the blueprint for defeating Canelo Alvarez.
The problem with that argument is that Canelo was lacking experience in that fight, and as he has shown, has learned his lessons since then. Billy Joe Saunders, certainly not in the defensive level of Floyd Mayweather, yet tried it and failed.
Caleb Plant is generally untested at this point. He doesn’t have stellar names in his resume just yet. It is an unknown how his skills will fare out against high-level competition. This is possibly one factor that Canelo Alvarez is favored to win this contest. Plant may possess the footwork to make him hard to hit, but in some of his fights, he was getting easier and easier to hit as the fight progressed and the rounds went on.
Keys to victory:
Caleb Plant –
- Pace himself. Caleb Plant can not afford to gas out in this fight, as he has been known to suffer in some of his fights.
- There is a possibility of making Canelo think twice, i.e., Canelo shoots to the body leaning backwards to his left, almost parallel feet, thus easy to take out his balance. Plant actually has a decent left hook, and he could exploit that as a chance to fire his left hook counter.
- Avoid the ropes. This is where he could get in trouble as this is where Canelo can fire his rapid and powerful combinations, i.e., he punches so hard that every part of the body he hits will hurt.
- Canelo’s chin is pretty solid, and Plant is not a known knockout artist, thus given these facts, he should master and maintain the distance and range and accumulate points to a victory.
Canelo Alvarez –
- Canelo should not let Plant’s mind games get to him. He should not let his emotions condition his game plan, i.e., to get careless and get desperate for a knockout, as he will miss a lot and waste a lot of energy doing so. And the frustration will build-up, and will probably lose on points.
- Plant generally keeps his hands down, so avoid uselessly aiming for the body, he could use his powerful overhand right to counter Plants jab, like he did with Amir Khan.
- Try to avoid headhunting, as Plant is a slick mover. Just try to touch Plant and hit him wherever, even in his arms, like he did with Callum Smith. Wait until Plant slows down in the later rounds, then go out with the full arsenal.
- Cut off the ring. Don’t’ try to follow Plant around.
Prediction:
I see a Canelo Alvarez win; he has the power, he has developed his defensive skills, his combinations are lethal. In other words, he has more tools in his toolbox to defeat Caleb Plant. He will hurt Plant at one point, but I think it will be a points victory.
But if, a big IF, Plant managed to succeed in his mind games with Canelo Alvarez, conditioning him to get angry and desperate, he might succeed in frustrating Canelo with his footwork and movement and might get away with the victory on points.