By Michael McKenzie – In a little over a month’s time, the eyes of the boxing world will be centered on the rematch between Gennady Golovkin and Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, once again for the former’s WBA, WBC, and IBO titles.
It has been a long road, but the two top middleweights are almost ready to settle the score. Leading up to their first fight, neither seemed to have a bad thing to say about the other. Oh how times change. Since then, bad blood has pooled up over the highly disputed split-draw result, the ensuing disputes over the money split for a rematch, and Alvarez’s positive drug test causing the initial booking of this fight to be canceled earlier this year. Beyond their begrudging respect of top level competitors, neither side has a positive word to say about the other now. Whoever comes up short in this one (assuming it does not end in another draw) will likely feel an especially painful and lasting sting beyond that of a ‘normal’ championship fight in the aftermath.
Sticking to the in-ring dynamics though, here is a look at how both men can learn from the first and maximize their chances of victory in the all-important second meeting on Sep. 12:
Golovkin:
Most observers believed he did enough to deserve the win last September. That’s never a bad thing in terms of confidence heading into a rematch. At 36 years of age though, he does not have the clock on his side and must fight with a greater sense of urgency.
The adjustments he can make all ultimately boil down to one thing; don’t give so much respect this time. Golovkin has to go big or go home in this fight. In the first (particularly rounds 1 through 4), he was cautious, even hesitant at times. A far cry from the brazen destroyer that captured all-but-one of the major middleweight belts as well as the attention of the world in the process. It was clear that he held Canelo’s ability in especially high regard. That respect though, afforded Canelo a certain amount of leeway to set up his own offense and get away in critical moments. The middle rounds saw a more confident Golovkin opening up a bit more and building a lead. As the twelfth bell rang, however, Canelo appeared to be the fresher of the two.
Typically in fights such as these even after close the outcome, the more counterpuncher (Alvarez) has an edge in a rematch. There is usually more they can adapt to than vice versa. The counterpuncher simply has more to work with in terms of “figuring out” their opponent typically. The offensive fighter is more likely to fight closer to how they did in the first. It is riskier to fight in the more aggressive manner Golovkin is known for against an elite level opponent. On the other hand, it is his best shot to improve upon his performance last year and earn the satisfying win. Keeping his punch output high, using more aggressive footwork to commit to cutting off the ring more than last time, and using more feints to set up traps for Canelo to bite on with his counters and keep him guessing are all key to accomplishing this.
Alvarez:
Conventional wisdom suggests that the younger and more defensive fighter will have more adjustments that he can make differently in the rematch than his older, come-forward counterpart. Alvarez is 28 and in his physical prime. He has a speed advantage. He is more defensively minded. On paper at least, there are plenty of reasons why he should win.
His main goal ought to be to drain the momentum from his powerful foe early, and gradually open it up later on. It serves his favor to make the fight slower, and quite honestly, less exciting to spectators. Strategically picking his spots while avoiding firefights that favor ‘Triple G.’ In the first fight we saw much more movement from Canelo than we’re used to seeing. He was criticized by some for this who did not feel he matched Golovkin’s offensive output. He will still need to be on the move, but perhaps not as much, in order to achieve a convincing win. Using his jab as a lance to keep Golovkin at bay on the outside and frustrated into swinging wildly, gradually setting up bigger shots in the later rounds is key to this. Once he’s dictated the pace early, he will also be able to utilize the uppercut more in the mid to late rounds. This was a pivotal part of Canelo’s offense in the first fight. The way in which Golovkin keeps his guard with elbows a little wide makes him susceptible to the uppercut, and Canelo has a mean one. He also ought to avoid sitting on the ropes like the plague, not risking it as he did in spots last time.
The outcome, as with all high level/evenly matched fights, depends not on who has what particular style, but who can do a better job of imposing their particular style on their opponent.