By Donavan Leonard: Saturday June 17th Sergey Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KOs) and Andre Ward (31-0, 15 KOs) will square off once again to determine the holder of the most belts in the light heavyweight division. Much has been documented about the controversial scoring in the first fight, where Ward was deemed the winner by identical scores of 114-113 despite throwing 137 fewer punches, connecting on 10 fewer punches, and being knocked down by Kovalev.
Kovalev has done his part to help promote the fight, talking about “retiring” Ward, and much of the rhetoric has been about his ability to determine the winner with his own judges–his fists. However, fights at this level, especially those involving fighters such as Ward (great chin, great defense, average power) more often than not are determined by the three judges and their predispositions and biases. In this instance, “bias” does not refer to favoritism to a particular fighter, but to the preference they tend to show toward what transpires in the ring. Listed below are the judges that have been chosen, some relatively recent bouts that they have scored, and what this likely means to the fighters. These judges have worked many more bouts than these, but the list was chosen to exclude what should be very easy to score fights, (such as Floyd Mayweather-Andre Berto), fights with an obvious “house fighter” (Canelo Alvarez-Erislandy Lara), or bouts where the style of both fighters is similar (Canelo Alvarez-Miguel Cotto). This criterion should prove a useful tool, as 1. the first bout was not “very easy to score”, 2. despite grumblings about a “fix”, neither fighter is truly a Vegas “house fighter”, and 3. the difference between the styles of the fighters give an insight into what impresses these judges.
Glenn Feldman– Steve Rolls over Desmond Nicholson (77-74). Rolls was the aggressor in a fight that slightly resembled Kovalev vs. Ward. There was a fair amount of clinching, and in many rounds there was no “big” winner. Robert Easter over Luis Cruz (117-108). His scorecard favored Cruz in more rounds than the other judges, meaning he may have rewarded Cruz for aggression. James DeGale over Badou Jack (114-112). This card should concern Kovalev, as Jack outpunched and outlanded DeGale in 9 of the 12 rounds, yet he was unable to gain the favor of Feldman. Maurice Hooker draw Darleys Perez (95-95). This is another troublesome score. Hopefully just a terrible day at the office. In two other bouts where Feldman appeared to “get it right” (Ruslan Provodnikov-John Molina Jr, Jamie McDonnell-Tomoki Kameda), he tallied more rounds for the losing, aggressive fighter, than the other judges in the bout. From these cards, it appears that Feldman is more likely to score a round for a swarming aggressor, but he is also just as likely to score for a fighter who lands a “pretty punch” and then initiates clinches when uncomfortable (DeGale, Hooker). Kovalev does not fit the mold of either of those two types of fighters. The advantage here appears to be for Ward, although the Rolls-Nicholson scorecard could give hope to the Kovalev camp that Feldman’s preferences might be changing more toward Kovalev’s strengths.
Dave Moretti–Manny Pacquiao over Jesse Vargas (114-113). The other judges were both 118-109. Maybe he does not like Pacquiao’s style, as he scored 118-110 for Floyd Mayweather Jr. in their bout, which seemed about two rounds too many. Shawn Porter over Adrien Broner (115-111) in a fight that did not appear to be that close. Broner does quite a bit of posing and initiating clinches when the opponent works inside his comfort zone, so scoring close rounds for him even though he was outpunched (590 to 309) and out-landed (149-88) seems to be a troubling sign for the Kovalev team. Leo Santa Cruz over Carl Frampton 2 (115-113). Compubox does not tell the complete story, but in a fight where Santa Cruz outpunched “The Jackal” by nearly 300 punches, out-landed by 97 punches, and out-landed him in all 12 rounds of the bout, a 7-5 scorecard seems too close. This was a competitive fight, but the scoring appears to almost be comparative scoring, where Frampton was rewarded in closer rounds where he performed better even when he did not appear to do enough to win the round. If the rematch between Kovalev and Ward is similar to the first, this appears to be a judge who will score the bout to Ward.
Steve Weisfeld–Gennady Golovkin over Daniel Jacobs (115-112). This seems to be the consensus of most observers, although there are a few who felt Jacobs did enough to win. Adrien Broner over Adrian Granados (97-93). This matches the rounds that each fighter landed more punches, according to Compubox, although Granados threw 280 more punches, 28 per round, over that same time frame. James DeGale draw Badou Jack (113-113). As discussed above, this was a competitive scrap where it appears the “flashier” fighter was rewarded more than justified. Jamie McDonnell over Tomoki Kameda (117-110). This scorecard was less favorable to the aggressive Kameda than Feldman’s. Weisfeld also had Vladimir Klitschko ahead of Anthony Joshua (95-93) through the ten frames that were scored. From this body of work, it appears that Weisfeld is “easier to please”. It seems that “showy” or “clear” shots will earn a fighter the round. Jacobs had good body work versus Golovkin, but the Golovkin jab constantly landed, and the head popping back is easy to see. Broner was being outworked on the inside by Granados, but Broner’s shots to Granados’ head, in clear view of everyone and sending sweat across the ring, gave Weisfeld the data he felt he needed to score those rounds for Broner. DeGale, McDonnell, and even Klitschko appeared to land more open headshots than their opponents. This should be noted by Ward, as his inside game is his strength, and punches to the ribs of Kovalev will probably not impress Weisfeld as much as a jab or two from Kovalev to Ward’s head in the middle of the ring.
The action in the ring will hopefully be definitive enough to clearly determine the winner, and it would be convenient to all involved if a knockout provided the answer to “who’s best”. With the odds of that happening being extremely low, the tendencies of the referees and the way they score should be kept in mind. If these three judges had scored the bout in November 2016, it would probably have been a split decision, with Weisfeld the dissenter for Kovalev. It is also possible that Feldman would have also scored the bout for Kovalev.
When the bout unfolds Saturday night, the tendencies of the judges will most likely hold true. As fans score the bout at home, they may try to see through the eyes of those whose scorecards actually matter. Weisfeld will score the round for the fighter who had the “best” punches to the head–clear, clean, easy for any fan to see. If the fight is not in the center of the ring, and the round appears close, Moretti will score the round for a fighter of the “jab-and-grab” mold, and Feldman will score for come-forward aggression if it is somewhat effective. In lieu of come-forward aggression, Feldman appears to favor the “jab-and-grab” as well. Neither Kovalev nor Ward are traditional stalkers, so that leads to one judge who bases rounds on clean head shots and two that seem to favor spoiler-type fighters in close rounds. The advantage is clearly for Ward. Kovalev must hope to keep the fight in the middle of the ring, where he can score clean shots to the head to get Weisfeld’s vote, and at the same time keeping Ward off of him to prevent the round from being close enough for Moretti and Feldman from having an opportunity to score it for Ward.
This is not to imply that Moretti and Feldman are ready to give the fight to Ward. If he wins, he will have earned it in their eyes. What this does is arm both sides with the information they need to impress the judges that have been assigned. If both camps have done their homework, then they know that the key, regardless of damage done, is Kovalev keeping Ward on the outside, or Ward finding a way to get inside Kovalev’s long jabs and straight rights. Saturday night we will find out which fighter is up to the task.