By Jeff Aranow: Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) saw enough of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 Kos) from his last fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. to agree that he’s in for a brutal shock when the two of them fight each other on September 16. This could be a grim outcome for Canelo, especially if he tries to fight GGG off the ropes like he did with Chavez Jr., Liam Smith and Austin Trout.
Canelo has the talent to give GGG problems if not one thing – the punching power of Triple G. If Canelo had nothing to worry about in terms of big shots being thrown back at him, he would be able to out-box Golovkin like he’s done against most of the other opponents he’s faced. But, with Golovkin nailing him with monstrous shots, Canelo might be forced to cover up and plug all the leaky holes in his defense.
Canelo will be like a leaky boat sinking quickly from the holes that Golovkin is punching threw his hull. Canelo won’t be able to focus on his game plan with Golovkin smashing him with shots. Oscar De La Hoya, the promoter for Canelo, is going to find out too late that he made this fight too soon. He should have waited until Golovkin got old.
This is going to be the first real fight that Canelo has hade at 160 since he moved up to the weight class. Golovkin isn’t the ideal opponent you want to have a newcomer to the middleweight division fighting. Golovkin is in the advanced class of the 160 pound division. Canelo should be fighting the weaker middleweights to start off. This fight is all wrong for Canelo. His promoters at Golden boy Promotions should have waited a couple of more years for Golovkin to age a little more.
Canelo is going to give it his best shot, but I see him being too small and too weak for Golovkin. The power shots that Canelo was able to land for knockout blows against guys like James Kirkland and Amir Khan won’t do the same thing against GGG – or any of the bigger middleweights like Jermall Charlo and Danny Jacobs.
In a nutshell, I see this fight as the beginning of the end for Canelo, where he’s exposed as being too small for the middleweight division. Canelo’s career will be stultified from this point on. He won’t be able to go back down to 154, because he’s too big, and he won’t be able to move up 168 due to his lack of size. Canelo will be stuck at 160, having to fight guys that are way bigger than him like Jacobs and the Charlos.
“Absolutely,” said Golovkin when asked by TMZ.com if Canelo is in for a rude awakening on September 16.
Canelo is in the same situation as Adrien Broner with him fighting at 147. Broner is a fighter that was perfect in fighting at super featherweight to lightweight. But once Broner moved up to 147, he was too small and weak for the division. He’s not been able to find the same kind of success as he had earlier in his career when he was fighting in the lower weight classes. Broner doesn’t seem capable of melting down in weight to fight at the weight classes he previously dominated.
Canelo is stuck now fighting at 160, a weight class that he’s too small for. It’s not that Canelo is too small for middleweight in terms of his weight. His weight is fine for that division. It’s Canelo’s short 5’9” height that is going to get him in big trouble against Golovkin and the other middleweights in the division. Canelo is only 26 now. He’s pretty much stuck at middleweight now. With Golovkin, he’s going to be moving up to 168 after he fights Canelo and WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders. Golovkin will be looking to fight super middleweight champions George Groves, James DeGale and Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez.
I think Golovkin will be retiring soon. With Canelo, he’s going to still be a 160, and forced to fight the Charlo brothers, Demetrius Andrade and Daniel Jacobs. Those guys are even bigger than Golovkin. Canelo’s career is going to go downhill badly from age 27 on. That’s my prediction, because he’s not equipped physically to be fighting at middleweight.
It’s too bad for Canelo. I think he can’t make 154 any longer. Maybe he can melt down to 156 and create that as his catch-weight division in order to fight junior middleweights and welterweights. The only problem with that is Canelo isn’t going to have anyone to fight. The 154 lb. division has tough fighters that ruling that division. I don’t see Canelo fighting them. The risk vs. reward isn’t there for Canelo to fight the likes of Jermell Charlo
Golovkin is already questioning Canelo’s punching power after seeing how he wasn’t able to knockout Chavez Jr. If you look at some of the comments from Golovkin, he was both surprised and happy at seeing how Canelo’s power wasn’t good enough to knockout Chavez Jr. Golovkin understands now that Canelo lacks the power in his shots to give him any problems. Yeah, Golovkin will get hit by Canelo’s counter shots ever now and then, but he’s going to be able to wear Canelo down and stop him.
Golovkin then said this when asked about Canelo’s flaws: “It’s very interesting for me because why Canelo not beat him? Not beat him as knocking down. Not stopping him?! This is interest[ing]. He looks terrible.”
Canelo is not going to be able to jab with Golovkin. That’s the first problem that Canelo is going to have. If Golovkin decides he just wants to box Canelo from the outside like he did against Danny Jacobs on March 18 of this year, Canelo is going to be powerless to do anything about it, because he won’t have the arm length or the jab to compete with Golovkin in that kind of fight.
Well, fortunately for Canelo, it doesn’t look like Golovkin is going to fight him that way. Golovkin knows that a lot of boxing fans are going to be purchasing the fight on HBO PPV, and seeing it from all around the world. This is a fight where Golovkin MUST impress the boxing fans. Golovkin is not going to just stand back and fight like Floyd Mayweather Jr. did in his win over Canelo.
As I mentioned already, ultimately, Canelo’s lack of size is going to keep him from doing anything in the middleweight division in terms of beating the good fighters. I think Canelo is going to find out for himself that he’s pretty much in the same boat as guys like David Lemieux, Martin Murray and Curtis Stevenson. Even Lemieux more suited to the middleweight division than Canelo in my view. Lemieux is a HUGE puncher with true middleweight power. Canelo doesn’t have that kind of power. Lemieux is limited in the same way Canelo is in terms of his height and reach, which is why Lemieux will continue to come up short when he faces good fighters at 160.
Canelo will need to try and stay on the move in the first half of the fight with Golovkin if he wants to stay upright. Golovkin appears to be more dangerous in the first 6 rounds. In his last fight against Jacobs, Golovkin seemed to lose interest in going for the knockout after the 4th round. Jacobs was then able to turn on the heat in the second half with his own offense. However, Jacobs gave away too many early rounds for him to win the fight. Unfortunately, Canelo has slow feet, and he doesn’t move very well. Golovkin will have an easy time catching up to Canelo if he decides to use movement to keep out of range of Golovkin in the first half of the fight. Canelo may be forced to go to war with Golovkin whether he wants to or not.