By Dan Ambrose: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs) has his weight on target to easily make the 164 ½ pound catch-weight for his mega-fight against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) on May 6 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Chavez Jr. says he’s already down to 180 pounds, and is just 15 ½ pounds above the limit for his fight against Canelo. With that kind of weight, it’s quite possible that Chavez Jr. will be outweighed by Canelo on the night of the fight, because he might be in the 180s on the night of the fight.
Chavez Jr. needs to make sure that he doesn’t take too much weight off for the fight, because the potential is there for him to overdo it during the nearly three months that he has before the fight on May 6. Getting too low might work against Chavez Jr.
If Chavez Jr. is able to get this low after such a short period of time, then there’s no reason why he can’t be fighting at middleweight in the future.
Chavez Jr. and his father Julio Cesar Chavez have a good plan that they plan on using for the Canelo fight. Right now, Chavez Jr. is working on his stamina and speed to implement that plan. The weight isn’t going to be a problem for Chavez Jr.
“I have to work on speed, endurance and above all, I do not have to battle for weight and take advantage of my natural abilities on him (Canelo),” said Chavez Jr. to ESPN’s Blow to Blow. “I am taller, I have fought in pesos bigger than him and I have had more wars than he. Maybe it’s the experience, that’s going to be the difference.”
It’s unclear what Chavez Jr. and his father Chavez’s plan is for the Canelo fight, but there’s a good chance that it could involve pressuring the smaller fighter and forcing him into a war against the ropes.
Canelo has terrible stamina, and he’s not able to stay in the center of the ring for any length of time without needing to take a breather against the ropes. If Canelo starts getting hit a lot to the body by Chavez Jr, then he could struggle. Canelo fancies himself as a boxer/slugger, but he’s not proven that his boxing ability is good enough to beat quality fighters.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara both out-boxed Canelo. Welterweight Amir Khan was out-boxing Canelo until getting caught in the 6th round and knocked out last year in May.
Miguel Cotto out-boxed Canelo until switching up the game plan in the second half of the fight to slug with him instead. That was a mistake for Cotto, because he was giving away so much weight. Cotto rehydrated to a little over 160lbs, but he looked considerably lighter than Canelo, and his punches had no effect on him.
Mayweather, Lara and Cotto all had success against Canelo when they were using their jabs. Chavez Jr. might want to consider using his height and reach to jab Canelo from the outside rather than going primitive on him and standing and slugging.
There would be a risk involved if Chavez Jr. boxes Canelo, because the judges might give him the decision win like they did in the Canelo-Lara fight. Canelo was jabbed silly by Lara, but the judges still gave him the win.
Canelo is a very popular fighter that means a lot to the sport of boxing. It might not be easy for Chavez Jr. to win a decision over Canelo unless he takes the fight to him. Mayweather was a different story. He was so popular that he didn’t have to give Canelo a beat down for him to get a decision win. All Mayweather had to do was jab Canelo like mad, which he did.
Canelo landed almost nothing in the fight. Sadly, one judge scored the fight a draw. Chavez Jr. will obviously need a couple of plans for the Canelo fight. Chavez Jr. can’t just jab Canelo to pieces and hope the judges will do the right thing and give him the decision. Chavez Jr. will probably need to trade with Canelo a certain amount in each round to win the rounds.
Normally, you think that if Chavez Jr. jabbed Canelo from the outside without getting hit that it would be enough to win, but it didn’t work for Cotto, Austin Trout or Lara. I don’t think it will work for Chavez Jr. he’s going to need to wear Canelo out with body shots, and turn him into another Andy Lee. Chavez Jr. battered Lee against the ropes with big body shots until stopping him in the 7th round in their fight in 2012.
“My dad tells me that I have to be physically and mentally well prepared,” said Chavez Jr. He has confidence in [trainer Nacho] Beristáin, the strategy we are going to do and in which we will work hard not to battle anything with the weight, and to be one hundred percent in physical condition that is going to be fundamental for the fight,” said Chavez Jr.
This is good news that Chavez Jr. is already down to 180 pounds. He can use then remainder of the training camp to work on his stamina, and his game plan for the Canelo fight. In the past, Chavez Jr. has looked heavy and sluggish in his fights against Andrzej Fonfara, Marcos Reyes and Brian Vera.