By Chris Williams: IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs) and his team at K2 Promotions need to do the smart thing and accept the more than fair offer of $10 million to fight Mexican star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 Kos) for a fight next year in September 2017.
The offer is a good one, and more than what Golovkin will make fighting anyone else out there in the boxing world that is willing to fight him. This could be the last chance for Golovkin to get a big mega-fight before his career ends.
If Golovkin doesn’t accept the Canelo offer, then he has nothing really look forward to in terms of big money fights. Canelo is now the only superstar in boxing with Floyd Mayweather Jr. gone and Manny Pacquiao no longer bringing in a lot of pay-per-view buys for his fights.
Whether Golovkin and his promoters want to acknowledge it or not, Canelo is calling the shots. He’s the 900 pound gorilla in boxing now. Golovkin should be happy he’s getting even a $10 million offer, because Canelo could have made it a lower offer if he wanted to. Canelo is in the position to offer his opponents lowball offers if he wants to. They would have to accept it if they want to fight him and have the opportunity for a nice payday and to help raise their popularity with casual boxing fans.
The money that Golovkin is getting is actually more than what Canelo received for his fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Even back in 2013, you can argue that Canelo was already more popular than Golovkin is today.
Canelo was given a guarantee of $5 million plus some of the pay-per-view upside money, which turned out to be another $4 million. That’s $9 million for a fight that brought in 2.2 million buys. Many of the buys were because of Canelo, but he wasn’t in the position to dictate against Mayweather at the time. If Golovkin beat Canelo or if the fight exciting and brings in a lot of pay-per-view buys, then Golovkin will get a better financial deal in the rematch.
If there’s a third fight between them, Golovkin can make a ton of money. But if he and his team are stubborn and insist on making more than the $10 million offer that has been given to him for the Canelo fight, then he’ll receive nothing. He won’t get the fight, because it’s pretty clear that the offer that was given to him by Canelo and Golden Boy will stand. They will not sweeten the pot by offering more, because it’s too risky on their part. If the Canelo-Golovkin fight fails to bring in more pay-per-view buys than Canelo’s fight against Miguel Cotto last November, then Golden Boy is the one that will be taking it on the nose, not Golovkin.
If Golovkin turns down the Canelo fight, then he’s going to be stuck having to fight the lesser name contenders. There are a lot of them. Golovkin needs to face WBA ‘regular’ middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs next in early 2017 and he might not win that fight.
That’s a tough fight for GGG. Jacobs is fast, powerful, and athletic. He’s probably just as good a puncher as Golovkin is, but with better hand speed, power and athleticism. I wouldn’t be surprised if Golovkin loses that fight. If that happens, then Golden Boy’s offer of $10 million will be pulled back. I think Golden Boy will still be interested in the Golovkin fight, because the Kazahstan fighter will still be popular even after he loses to Jacobs. But the money offer is going to need to come down dramatically. I suspect that Golden Boy’s offer of $10M will be dropped to $3 million and it’ll be a take it or leave it offer.
For a fighter that would be potentially coming off of a loss to Jacobs, $3 million would be a more than generous offer. Golovkin would be crazy not to accept that kind of money if it’s offered to him off the back of him losing to Jacobs by a knockout. Golden Boy would be the one sticking their necks out by guaranteeing Golovkin money for a fight that might not sell against Canelo on HBO PPV.
As for the $10 million that is now being offered by Golden Boy to Golovkin, it’s not a ridiculous offer, as Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez believes it to be so. Golovkin is about to turn 35, and is entering the twilight of his boxing career. Golovkin is not going to be fighting much longer. You could see how tired his eyes looked at the weigh-in for his last fight against welterweight Kell Brook last September.
Golovkin looked like he’d aged four years in one training camp. He suddenly looked all of his 34 years in that fight. The offer that was given to Golovkin for the Canelo fight is one that I feel is perfectly reasonable for a fighter who has never shown himself to be a pay-per-view draw, and for someone who probably never will be a PPV fighter.
Golovkin is an aging fighter who doesn’t have a lot of options for big fights in the sport. Golden Boy and Canelo know this. They’re not going to overpay Golovkin for this fight, because that doesn’t make good business sense. They know how much Golovkin is worth, and they’re paying him what they feel is fair to him. $10 million is not an insulting offer, especially given that Golovkin is going to make more from the pay-per-view upside. When it’s all said and done, Golovkin could walk away with nearly $15 million for the Canelo fight.
That’s a lot of money even after all the expenses are taken out. I think Golovkin would wind up with close to $4 million after all the expenses are taken out. That would be good money. If Golovkin beats Canelo or does well enough for them to fight a rematch, then he can make even more money. Canelo is a good person. I think he would give Golovkin a rematch if their fight does well on pay-per-view, even if he loses. That’s the way Canelo is.
Golovkin is not in the position to call the shots or to be picky. Canelo is calling the shots in this negotiation. As soon as Golovkin realises this, he can work on getting the fight signed so that he can get a career high payday and possibly take his career to the next level should he win the fight. Canelo is offering Golovkin a chance of a lifetime with this fight. If Golovkin doesn’t accept it, then it’ll be his own blown opportunity.