(Artwork by SG) By Scott Gilfoid: Johnny Nelson was surprised at the condition of IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (35-0, 32 KOs) at last Friday’s weigh-in for his fight tonight against Kell “Special K” Brook (36-0, 25 KOs), and he wonders whether he started training camp late for their September 10 fight. Nelson notes that the 34-year-old Golovkin’s face looked bad around his eyes and jaw areas.
Unlike others, Nelson sees Golovkin’s condition as more of a case of him having gotten a late start in training camp rather than him being physically ill. Never the less, it amounts to be the same. If Golovkin isn’t 100% tonight when he steps inside the ring against the 30-year-old Brook, then it really doesn’t matter whether it’s from him having gotten a late start in training camp or ill. He’s going to have problems whatever the cause.
Of course, it might not matter though, because Golovkin will still be the bigger puncher of the two and the guy with the superior experience and boxing skills. You can’t say that Brook has any real experience at the pro level because he’s only fought one decent fighter in his career in Shawn Porter. The rest of the guys that Brook has fought have been a mixed back of mediocre 2nd and 3rd tier guys with a handful of guys with inflated rankings from the 1st tier. In other words, Brook’s resume is filled with very marginal opposition.
“It shocked me when Golovkin was sat up there because his jaws and just below his eyes looked thin and drawn,” Nelson said to skysports.com. “I’ve heard a few whispers that he started training camp late for this one. Is that telling me he underestimates Kell, thinking he is just a welterweight?”
I doubt that Golovkin started training camp late. I don’t believe that for a second. I think his condition that we’ve seen in the last couple of days is either him being ill and unable to drink a lot of water to flush out the illness, or him being worn out from the weight draining process. You’ve got guys that can take off TREMENDOUS amounts of water weight in draining down in weight like Saul Canelo Alvarez, and then you’ve got Golovkin, who clearly struggles in taking off just 10 pounds. It doesn’t appear to be an effortless process for Golovkin to take the water weight off like it is with some fighters. Never the less, Golokvin made weight on Friday in coming in at a rounded off 159 to Brook’s 159.5. Golovkin doesn’t need to worry about that anymore. All he has to do is make sure he’s well-hydrated and has enough food in his system to give him the energy that he needs to defeat Brook with flying colors tonight.
When it’s all said and done, it doesn’t matter how bad Golovkin looked this week. Just as long as he can go out and do the job tonight, it’s all that matters. Brook and his fans can continue to talk about how Golovkin didn’t look well this week, but it won’t matter if he still wins.
“He makes out he has full respect for Kell and says he knows he’s in for a tough fight, but all of a sudden, now having seen him, the jowls, his eyes and how slim he looks, I am wondering: ‘Did you just measure this wrong?’ said Nelson.
I hate to say it, but Brook’s only real chance of winning is if Golovkin is so incredibly sick that he’s down to maybe 50 percent capacity inside the ring. If Golovkin is at 60%, I see him having more than enough punching power to take Brook out with a body or head shot. As long as Golovkin’s timing is still there, he wins this fight with ease. He doesn’t need to have his monster punching power for him to win easily, because he’s so far ahead of the other middleweights in terms of power that he can lose strength and still be above them. Brook has never fought anyone with Golovkin’s kind of power before, so it’s going to be a shock for him anyway. Getting hit by Golovkin’s sledgehammer punches to the head and especially to the body is going to be a problem for Brook.
Maybe Golovkin did measure it wrong in taking off the weight to get down to the middleweight limit, but I still don’t think it will matter. I get the impression that Nelson and others are grasping at straws to try and find anything to have a glimmer of hope for Brook to win this fight. Brook is so, so over-matched in this fight that it’s not even funny. When you get to the area where Brook’s boxing fans are looking for anything to give their fighter a boost in the fight, it tells me that there’s desperation there on their part.
The fact of the matter is Brook doesn’t have the pop in his punches, and nor does he have the talent to win this fight. Unless this match ends up in a mauling affair with both guys standing and wrestling in the center of the ring like we saw in the excruciatingly boring affair between Brook and Shawn Porter in 2014, I don’t think Brook has a ghost of a chance of winning. I do think Brook is a better wrestler than Golovkin, but this boxing.
As long as Brook doesn’t plan on attaching himself physically to Golovkin tonight like an eight-armed octopus for 12 rounds, I think he’s going to get his lights punched out by the Kazakhstan fighter. Yeah, Golovkin might have bags under his eyes tonight, and his jowls might not look good, but this stuff is totally unimportant. Brook will still be in a world of hurt in the ring once Triple G start hunting him down like a great white shark, looking to tear him apart.
Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez thinks that the fight won’t last very long at all. He sees Brook coming unglued once GGG touches him for the first time with one of his big power shots. Sanchez expects for Brook and his trainer Dominic Ingle to change their plans entirely once he starts getting hit, and I think he may be right. Once Golovkin starts landing his big power shots, Sanchez expects for Brook to lose his senses and start stressing out.
Ingle’s game plan for Brook will come apart at the seams at that point with them having to resort to Plan-B, which Sanchez doubts will be a strategy to try and win the fight. Rather, it will be a survival mode strategy like we saw with Brook clinching Porter all night long to keep from him punching him. It sure would look bad if Brook chooses to just tie Golovkin up all night long and spoil for 12 rounds, hoping that the judges will give him the fight based on his holding rather than on fighting. It’s always sad when fighters choose to just stall out the fight by holding and/or running. I think it hurts the sport of boxing, because you’ve got MMA and other sports like football and basketball that have nonstop action. You don’t see those sports just stalling the action to keep from getting beaten.