Pacquiao will defeat Algieri tonight
by Bob Smith: For nearly a year and a half, your noted author has written informative and incisive articles and occasionally has even made predictions of upcoming matches, the majority of which were correct, with the notable exceptions of the Martinez-Cotto match up and the recent domination of Hopkins by Kovalev.
In researching the Pacquiao-Algieri fight, I came across a very insightful video that compared and contrasted Pacquaio and Mayweather, I thought very effectively.
While I do have slight quibbles with some of the arguments, I think that the basic point holds – Pacquiao has received more titles and awards than Mayweather, and he has done better against common opponents, therefore, he is the better fighter. What distinguishes Mayweather by contrast, is business acumen, charm, and a better sense of his limits, strengths and weaknesses. There is no way that Mayweather could have dominated Margarito as Pacquiao did, in fact, he avoided Margarito like the plague. Similarly, while both defeated Cotto and Hatton, Pacquiao both times did so more impressively. The two quibbles are that Cotto was weight drained for the Pacquiao fight, but not for the Mayweather fight, and that Mayweather defeated Hatton before Pacquiao did, but those aside the argument still stands.
Why then are people so underestimating Manny Pacquiao, and putting a nearly complete unknown with a decent chance to beat him?
One reason is the decline of Pacquiao. He has not had a knockout since 2009, just over five years ago. He also suffered the devastating KO at the hands of a likely obsessed Marquez, the worst defeat of his career. But more than these two, his best punches did not seem to overwhelm Bradley and Rios like they did fighters earlier in his career.
The other reason is the size advantage of style of Chris Algieri. Obviously, he is the bigger fighter than Pacquiao, but so were Margarito and De La Hoya, both of whom were proven quantities and had much more power than Algieri. The bigger issue is the style one – Algieri fights well going backwards, has a good jab, uses awkward angles, and if he can keep up distance, will successfully fight like a bigger man, as opposed to De La Hoya, Mosley, and Margarito, who kept coming forward. Is the kryptonite of Pacquiao a skilled boxer who is able to time him well and undermine his aggression with movement and counter punching?
The question then is the following: is the style of Chris Algieri enough to overwhelm the skill and experience advantages of Manny Pacquiao? I argue no – Algieri is a good (but not great) boxer, and he is just coming off of by far the best win of his career, in a fight I thought he should have lost, and in any case was a close victory. He is a respectable person and is very athletic, but nowhere near Pacquiao in boxing skill, power, and experience.
So the next question is: will it be a Pacquiao KO/TKO or a UD victory? If KO/TKO, what round? This is an important and significant question. For instance, if it is a KO/TKO, and an individual can predict the round successfully, the individual can make ten times their bet (at a minimum). For example, a 100 dollar bet turns into a 1000 dollar payday. With doing this just three times, a 100 dollar bet can turn into 100,000 dollars.
Like many fight fans, I look forward to the match and expect a Pacquiao victory. But a great way to celebrate as fans is to make some money in addition to this, and for a minimal fee, very handsome paydays become possible, very quickly.