(Photo credit: Esther Lin/Showtime) By Bob Smith: This could well be the breakout fight for Shawn Porter, and it is a very winnable fight for him if he is at the top of his game. He is a pressure fighter with good boxing skills and remarkable power, and a surprisingly long reach for his compact body.
Porter has also recently defeated two of the best welterweights in the division in Devon Alexander and Paulie Malignaggi. Brook, while a good fighter and while undefeated still, has fought much lower quality opposition, and almost certainly will go down at least once within the first 6 rounds.
Part of this outcome will be due to the overconfidence of Brook in seeking to trade punches with Porter, part of it will be due to the fact that Brook will rely too heavily on his timing (and fail in this at significant points) due to the speed disadvantage.
Though not a person who bets on fights, this is actually a fairly easy pick and a good one to bet on. On paper, they look similar, for both are undefeated fighters at or near the prime of their career. For instance, Shawn Porter is the IBF champion and Kell Brook is rated #4 by the IBO; Dan Rafael ranks Shawn Porter as #6 in the welterweight division behind the usual champions and former champions, and right after Maidana. While Brook is not in the top 10 on the list of Dan Rafael, he would certainly be in the top 20, and perhaps also in the top 15.
The reason this is a relatively easy pick for Porter is that despite surface similarities, he is the better fighter in almost every way. He has more speed, more power, superior ring generalship, far better experience and quality of opposition, and a better chin – he was Pacquiao’s sparring partner, while by contrast Brook has never fought an A level fighter at welterweight.
So, if it is your inclination, I would suggest betting on a Porter KO/TKO in one of the rounds between 4 and 7. If you do this, you will likely end up making about five times your money (and if you end up following my suggestion and it works out, just a thank you would be great; if not, the disclaimer is, I don’t bet myself and don’t have any money on it either). After a feeling out process and a few good punches in from Brook, I see Porter dominating, hurting and eventually ending the fight quite quickly. It is worth asking yourself as you think about this: who has faced the better opposition, Paulie or Kell Brook? Who is the more skilled boxer? Who has the better chin? When this is considered, and the vastly superior opposition of Paulie is considered, it is not realistic to expect Kell Brook to do much better.
Porter will have his breakout win tonight and will be considered one of the best fighters at welterweight after tonight, and to be frank, he may even do so well that many would consider Porter vs. Bradley a toss up, as I do now. In fact, I don’t see any other welterweight defeating Porter other than Mayweather and Pacquiao, though there are a lot of toss up fights – Khan, Thurman, Bradley, Guerrero, Marquez, and Maidana. Porter will show tonight that he will be a force in the welterweight division for years to come.
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