Trout: Lara will out-box Canelo, but won’t get the decision

By Boxing News - 07/08/2014 - Comments

lara0156By Dan Ambrose: Former WBA junior middleweight champion Austin Trout sees Erislandy Lara (19-1-2, 12 KO’s) in a really tough situation by facing Golden Boy Promotions’ No.1 fighter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (43-1-1, 31 KOs) on a Golden Boy card this Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Trout feels that Lara will dominate the fight, but will end up still losing to the 23-year-old Canelo, because he doesn’t see the judges giving Lara a decision over the more popular Canelo on a Golden Boy card.

“I feel that Lara will out box him, but Canelo will take it,” Trout said. “I don’t see Lara getting a decision unless he puts (Alvarez) down and I don’t think he can do that. Their strengths are perfect for each other and those are the fights that make for great fights,” Trout said.

Trout should know how it is to face Canelo, and not have rounds given to him in which he appeared to win. Trout badly out-worked Canelo in the first 6 rounds of their fight last year only to see two of the three judges working the fight giving Canelo almost every round in the fight, which had open scoring. The eventual scores on two of the judges’ scorecards looked totally out of place with them giving Canelo a wide victory in a fight that looked to be a draw at best.

Trout feels that Lara will need to use his legs to move around to find punching angles for the fight. It might be a good idea for Lara to hit and lean away from Canelo’s attempts to fire back his own shots. Floyd Mayweather Jr did a great job of connecting with shots to the head of Canelo, and then leaning backwards to prevent Canelo’s retaliatory shots from landing. It worked perfect for Mayweather because he made it an easy fight in totally schooling Canelo for 12 rounds. Sadly, one of the judges scored it a draw.

Lara, 5’10”, will have a one inch height advantage and a 4 ½” reach advantage over Canelo in this fight. That’s pretty significant advantage in reach, because Mayweather had a 1 ½” reach advantage over Canelo, and he was able to use it to his advantage in a huge way. Lara has a far longer reach, and this could play a role in Lara dominating Canelo on Saturday night. Trout had a 1 ½” each over Canelo as well, and he was able to use to it to control the action with his jab, but the judges saw Canelo as the better fighter.

“Canelo has to throw combinations, which he is good at but he has to stay busy and throw more punches than he normally does,” Trout said. “Lara can also throw combinations, but he has to utilize his footwork to get in position.”

Canelo won’t be able to throw combinations unless Lara is close enough for him to land his shots otherwise he’ll be throwing combinations at the air and getting tired.

What Trout didn’t talk about in his pre-fight analysis is Canelo’s stamina issues. He looked tired after the 6th round against Trout, and spent the last half of the fight with his back against the ropes. If Canelo gets tired in this fight in the second half, it’s going to give Lara a huge advantage to dominate the action with his superior stamina and long reach.



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