By Gerardo Granados: Next Saturday July 12 at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas; U.S.A., the former WBC-WBA light middleweight champion Saul Canelo Alvarez (W43(31)-L1-D1) will fight against current regular WBA belt holder Erislandy Lara (W19(12)-L1-D2). There is a big expectation for this bout, both are quality fighters but Lara´s amateur background gives him the edge on “pure boxing experience” and he is nowhere near of Alfredo Angulo fighting style.
Lara is not an elite boxer as Floyd Mayweather Jr. is, but he could trouble Canelo puzzling him with boxing ring smarts just as Money did when he clearly dominated the young lion. Lara´s record show that he is no monster puncher, nor has blazing speed but he is smart boxer with good power and speed also is accurate puncher, who has taken advantage of most of his opponent’s weakness. A slow flat footed Alfredo Angulo floored him twice and a feather puncher Austin Trout troubled him for a couple of rounds so for me the betting odds are surprisingly even, also promoter Oscar De la Hoya seems to be concerned but it might be in order to promote the fight.
Lara knows how to box and this is a life time opportunity for him so that makes him as dangerous as a legit contender can be. Lara’s hunger might not be enough when he fights a smart fighter in the name of Canelo who is a boxer puncher with good speed and power, also his defensive skills have evolved in his last couple of fights but his corner might have reached the limit. Against Mayweather they tried the same things round after round without any success, against Angulo they didn’t have to adjust at all but Lara is a different story because he can box and adjust.
What will happen if Canelo is in need to adjust and it will depend on his corner to advise him on what to do? Against Floyd it was shocking to see his corner so confident previous the fight and during the fight simply clueless on what to do.
Lara´s game plan may not contemplate to brawl with the kid, in the first half he could box on the outside taking advantage of his reach, countering with three punch combos, moving in circles waiting for openings or creating ones while timing when Canelo charges with his usual three punch tandem, always pressuring Alvarez when the young lion takes time off during the round to breath and avoid to gas out; Lara will not do what Angulo did nor what Trout did, if Lara is able to time him and slip or block the big right then he could outpoint him early to build a lead on cards forcing Canelo to come after him in the late rounds and test his stamina; but Lara must be careful all the time because Canelo can drop him in any round and end the fight there.
I think that against Lara, Canelo’s biggest weakness might be his corner. But still I am betting on Alvarez to win by KO, I am doing it because I have always had faith in the young lion punching power and not because I am a smart bet man. But what about the reader, do you think Canelo’s corner will be able to adjust if needed?
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