(Photo credit: Esther Lin/Showtime) By Jay McIntyre: Showtime’s next PPV card on Saturday March 8th will be headlined by Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-1-1, 30 KO’s) and Alfredo “El Perro” Angulo (22-3, 18 KO’s) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Both men are coming off of tough losses, but both are primed to deliver in what expects to be an entertaining scrap. While the odds according to some bookmakers have Alvarez as a -800 favourite and Angulo as a +500 underdog, I find this disparity quite suspect and would like to analyze what both men bring to the ring in this latest installment of “My Two Cents”.
Saul Alvarez
Praise: power in both hands, sticks to game plan, clever use of punching combinations
Concern: has not shown much ability fighting while going backwards, doesn’t feint enough, takes time off during rounds
Alvarez has polarized the boxing community with his rise to the top. On the one hand he is a dangerous puncher that went undefeated until he fought Mayweather, and on the other he has been derided by others for fighting men that were either past their prime or from smaller weight classes. I think it is important to know that – regardless of your opinion – while he is a young fighter that still has much to learn, he has also already shown some noteworthy ability.
Before I outline what Alvarez should do going into this fight, we must acknowledge what he is able to do. A fleet-footed opponent would trouble Angulo but Alvarez is not fleet of foot. He will need to employ the right technique that is within the realm of his ability to edge to win. Alvarez doesn’t move a lot, so he will need to move in the right way to make the most of his limited stamina and present skill set.
Jab – Overhand Right
Alvarez should use his jab to set up his overhand right. Angulo doesn’t move his head very much (other than predictably ducking) so by jabbing straight at him, he will force him to bring his gloves together to block and this will create an opening around the side of the glove for Alvarez to exploit with a curving right hand. The jab will also serve to keep Angulo at range where Alvarez is better at throwing straight punches.
Additionally, Alvarez should consider using that right hand as an effective cross-counter for two reasons. First of all, Angulo throws out a lazy jab and doesn’t restore his glove to the proper defensive position as quickly as he ought to. Boxing’s Ten Commandments, by Alan Lachlia, is a very worthwhile read, and in it he phrases the restoration of your hand to its proper defensive position as the “race to the face”. Basically, if your hand isn’t there protecting your face, someone else’s will be there to smash it. Alvarez can time this lazy jab, step on a forty-five degree angle forward and to the left, and turn a right hook over the top of Angulo’s jabbing shoulder to land a dangerous punch. Given that Angulo always likes to move forward, his motion will be adding kinetic force to the punch and will cause greater damage.
Also, Alvarez will want to make Angulo reluctant, and by targeting his recently busted left orbital bone he will rattle the confidence he has in his ability to take damage there (during the Erislandy Lara fight on June 8th, Lara broke the orbital bone with a southpaw left hand as Angulo moved forward). Some might argue that this is underhanded, and I can certainly see your point. I, for one, don’t want Angulo to experience any permanent damage, but boxing is boxing, and he knows the risks when he steps through the ropes. In 2011 Miguel Cotto – always a fan favourite – blasted Antonio Margarito’s oribtal bone which was shattered by Pacquiao earlier in 2010 and Lennox Lewis precision punched Vitali Klitschko’s cut eye to get a sixth round stoppage in 2003, so exploiting weakness is par for the course in the sweet science. After stepping on a forty-five and landing his cross-counter, Alvarez will be off of Angulo’s line of attack and can pivot out and re-establish a stronger vantage point at the expense of Angulo as he tries to restore his position.
If Angulo starts to duck these overhands, then faking them to set up a left hook would be a prudent modification. In fact, if you watch any of the padwork showcased by Alvarez’s team that is posted on YouTube then you will see that he closes his combinations with a left hook to the body and this body blow could be a sound investment over the course of the fight.
Uppercuts
Angulo likes to duck to avoid his opponent’s power shots. This is effective in that it limits what his opponent can throw – straight punches in particular become less useful, and uppercuts are harder to curve and land on such a low target. The problem in this methodology is its predictability. Alvaerz and his camp will no doubt have observed this tendency and hopefully will have trained the timing of his uppercuts as Angulo begins to duck, thereby creating another opportunity to force a collision between Alvaerz’s punches and Angulo’s face.
Countering Angulo’s Inside Game
When Angulo starts rampaging on the inside he has a tendency to get a little sloppy with his defense. Given that Alvarez probably won’t opt to move about laterally, but instead shell up and wait, I would encourage Alvarez to pick his moments to counter once Angulo gets going. To counter this bludgeoning inside game, Alvarez will want to time his uppercuts and his hooks, even using them in two punch combinations, if the opportunity permits.With his gloves up to protect himself he should time his
Given Angulo’s aforementioned tendency to lean forward and pummel with hooks, Alvarez will find himself with ample opportunity to land uppercut counters, and he should do, as they will pop up Angulo’s head and can be followed up with hooks to hit Angulo’s exposed skull. Unless Alvarez plans to step out and deny Angulo his prime angle of attack, he should not stand and trade hooks with someone more familiar with that weapon and how it is used on the inside. One might say: “Don’t hook with a hooker”, but the language just doesn’t sound right, does it? Instead he should land a clean uppercut or two (slam in a hook as icing on the cake) and create space, jabbing out if Angulo pursues.
What to Avoid
Alvarez will want to avoid leading with that left hook to the head as it is something that Angulo can get inside of. As punishing as that left hook has proven to be, he will find it better suited on the end of his combinations – particularly to the body – rather than thrown “cold” and left on its own. Once inside Alvarez’s left hook Angulo will be able to have his way at the expense of Alvarez who really doesn’t have as much of an inside game – hence my recommendations regarding how he should counter Angulo’s. The “unless” qualifier is unless Alvarez uses that left hook to bait Angulo into another punch like a right uppercut or Angulo’s chin is wide open and begging for it. Alvarez has the nasty habit of shelling up and looking complacent on the ropes, and there will be no room for breaks or boredom against Angulo. Pursuant to that, Alvarez simply cannot take time off during rounds like he has been known to do – Angulo can and will make the most of it and get down to business. Make no mistake, Alvarez will have a real test awaiting him in the opposite corner on Saturday night as he has not fought a persistently aggressive fighter of Angulo’s size, power, determination and durability.
Alfredo Angulo
Praise: strong puncher, reliable stamina, sturdy chin
Concern: no head movement, minimal outside game, slow hand speed
Alfredo Angulo is a durable and reliable fighter. He will show up to fight and no one will have an easy time in the ring with him due to his unwavering effort and willingness to shrug off damage to deal out his own. These are all desirable qualities, as grit and resilience have proven to be essential ingredients that can turn the tide of a lopsided right. However, Angulo ia an incomplete prizefighter and his weaknesses are exploitable. Most recently, the cagey Cuban Erislandy Lara stopped Angulo in the tenth round by shelling his face from a distance until a straight left hand detonated on his orbital bone, causing Angulo to immediately turn his back to the fight, inviting the ref’s stoppage. Up to that point he was winning on one judge’s scorecard and had floored Lara on two occasions during that fight. The one absolute certainty in this fight is that Angulo’s stamina can outlast Alvarez’s. Angulo needs to use this to his advantage and avoid providing Alvarez with the opportunities listed above.
Cut off the Ring
Angulo should get to the centre of the ring right away and begin pressuring Alvarez to the ropes. Alvarez will win a confrontation if they trade shots on the outside, so Angulo should not waste any time moving into his space and getting to work. While it is often encouraged to move into range behind a distracting or double jab, Angulo has a lazy left hand when he throws it and it will give Alvarez an opportunity to counter. In order to bully Alvarez to the ropes, he should keep his gloves up and hook at Alvarez while he moves away to the sides. While this will be a labour intensive endeavor for Angulo, it will have a more disheartening effect on Alvarez whose stamina has always suspect. This constant pressure will force Alvarez to either cover up and try to punch back, or to continue moving away. Either way, he is either exposed to getting punching as Angulo moves inside, or he tires from the constant evasive movement. Pressure does not have an immediate effect, it is an investment that creates cracks and openings which – sooner or later – can be exploited.
Inside Fighting
Once inside, Angulo will be in a position of local superiority as he is both more familiar and more effective on the inside. His fighting on the inside is effective because Angulo is powerful and he picks his shots, varying the locations of his punishment between the head and the body, which makes it all the more unpredictable to anticipate.
The teachable moment here is that Angulo is clever sandpaper on the inside. He is irritating and wears away at his opponents, all the while mixing up the angles of his strikes to confuse the defensive posture of his adversary. The net result in frame four is a beautiful left hook. As a sidenote, a couple of things which make the left hook so wonderful are its arcing angle out of view of the receiver, its closeness to its target, and its power when the hips are swiveled into the strike.
Crowd Alvarez’s Space And Let Him Lead
What I mean by “countering instead of leading” is that Angulo should stalk Alvarez, while employing a high guard, and then wait for Alvarez to throw a punch. Once he has goaded Alvarez into throwing, he should get inside and employ his attritional, dynamic punching. Angulo, of course, cannot stick to this exclusively, but it should be an important tactic which will get the fight where he wants it to be. Alvarez hits with substantially more power than Lara so it would not be prudent for Angulo to lead with all the time when trying to get inside, nor would it be advisable to walk straight at Alvarez. It is a universal boxing truth that every time you throw a punch you are exposed to danger – your feet are momentarily planted, and you have relinquished some of your guard in favour of an attack. By goading Alvarez into throwing he will have a ‘stuck’ target for a brief second, and therefore an opening to punch at. This can be achieved by pretending to throw that jab so that it is back in time to cover up, or by stepping toward at an angle to evade an incoming punch. Given that Alvarez doesn’t move terribly fast, these tactics could be a prime means for Angulo to connect on his hard-punching opponent.
What To Avoid
Angulo should avoid letting Alvarez off the hook when/if he decides to take time off during rounds. He also needs to spend as much time inside of Alvaerz’s straight punches as possible. Alvarez is great at looking good when he is busy (because he is good), so Angulo should turn up the heat as soon as Alvarez backs off. Lastly, Angulo will want to keep that left eye safe behind his guard. His head movement is not exceptional so he will want to avoid that lazy jab I mentioned earlier. I would recommend that he snap it back much quicker, and I hope that he does this as attacking behind an effective jab is always a good idea to create openings and distract the opponent (Jack Dempsey could do so with his “lead jolt”, and Mike Tyson did a lot, doubling up on the jab as he crowded his foe). Angulo will want to avoid giving Alvarez an opportunity to land his right hand over the top of his left shoulder. Simply countering with a right cross and following up with a left hook will wreak havoc on Angulo, particularly given his recent eye injury.
Prediction
When I think of the outcome to this fight I think of a coin toss. It can go either way. Both men have something in them that can deeply trouble their opponent. Alvarez has the power and combinations to wound Angulo, while Angulo has the grit and endurance to frustrate Alvarez and wear him down. That being said, expect the smart game-planning, clever combination punching and thudding power of Alvarez to turn out a close decision win. I can see this fight being a whole lot closer than the odds-makers expect. While Angulo has power, he can be timed, and Alvarez is better at timing than Angulo is at feinting and cloaking his intentions. Alvarez also thrives when stringing combinations together against static opponents. In any event, as with all fights, this one will certainly boil down to who can effect a better game plan. I find this fight of immense interest because both fighters have significant defensive holes in the games and yet both are at their best when attacking their foes. Expect a war in Sin City on Saturday night, but don’t be so sure about the outcome. Alvarez said: “I took this fight because I know Angulo does not run around the ring…” and he should be careful what he has wished for. Game-planning, endurance and willpower, undoubtedly, will be key points for observation when you hear the opening bell.
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Or check out my boxing blog at: a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca (some information and images from the original article were omitted for submission to boxingnews24)
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