By Dan Ambrose: Photo credit: Casino/Showtime – 42-year-old Glen Johnson (51-15-2, 35 KO’s) is the underdog tonight in his fight against International Boxing Federation (IBF) super middleweight champion Lucian Bute (29-0, 24 KO’s) at the Pepsi Coliseum, in Quebec, Canada in a fight that will be aired on Showtime in the U.S. Johnson isn’t quick on his feet at this age, and he’ll need to be to get a win over the younger 31-year-old Bute.

The fight is taking place in Canada, which means that Johnson’s chance of winning a decision is pretty much nil. If he’s going to win it’s going to have to be by knockout. It’s possible for Johnson to get a KO, since it’s already been shown that Bute has a questionable chin in his past fights. However, for Johnson to get to Bute’s chin, he’s going to have to put a lot of pressure on Bute and use quick feet to cut off the ring.

If you let Bute run, he’ll tap and back away all night long and win a wide points decision. He does that against guys that can punch a little. The problem is Bute hasn’t faced a quality puncher since he captured the IBF belt four years ago in his win over Alejandro Berrio in October 2007. The closest that Bute has come to facing another puncher since then was his fight against Edison Miranda in April 2010.

Bute didn’t get hit much in that fight because he took Miranda out in the 3rd round before the Colombian ever got his offense un-tracked. Johnson has got the power to beat Bute, but he’s going to have to try and find a way to deliver his shots by cutting off the ring or timing Bute’s attacks. Bute will hit and run, making it hard for Johnson to land his own shots. However, if Johnson can time Bute when he comes to throw his usual pecking shots, Johnson can hurt Bute during those times. If not, the fight will quickly turn into a slow, boring fight where Johnson plods forward and Bute constantly backs up and changes directions.

We’ll probably see Bute landing a variety of punches from different angles to keep Johnson guessing and to stay out of his way. The last thing we’ll see is Bute standing right in front of Johnson and trying to fight a traditional type of fight. Bute can’t do that. I mean he can against guys that don’t know how to block and uppercut or take a body shot like the weak opposition Bute has been facing for the past three years. But against a fighter that can stop or take an uppercut like Johnson, Bute would get knocked out if he stayed in front of him all night long. Bute can’t win that type of fight. He’s a hit and run fighter who can take you out if you have a weak chin or limited skills. But against a quality fighter, Bute will resort to running in order to win.