By Dan Ambrose: When promoters plan out fights they sometimes overlook opponents due to their age. I believe this is the case for the March 12th fight between WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto and 37-year-old Ricardo Mayorga. Bob Arum, Cotto’s promoter, obviously sees Mayorga’s age and believes that because he’s the older fighter that Cotto will naturally come out on top as the winner in this pay-per-view fight on 3/12 at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

I think Arum is going to be saddened when he sees Mayorga looking like a fighter 10 years younger on March 12th, ripping Cotto apart with shots to the head and ultimately stopping him in eight or nine rounds. Mayorga winning the fight will be shocking to some boxing fans, but not to me. I’ve seen Cotto’s face get easily disfigured by Manny Pacquiao, Antonio Margarito and Joshua Clottey, and I know that Mayorga hits just as hard as those guys do if not harder.

Mayorga also is just as busy in terms of offensive firepower and I think Cotto is going to have problems taking the many shots he’s going to be getting hit with. I think Cotto has a great chin, and will stand up to Mayorga’s punishing shots. But once Cotto’s face starts busting up and swelling like a grapefruit, his ability to fight hard will go drastically down hill at that point. Cotto doesn’t fight will when he’s busted up and bleeding and seems to get nervous.

It’s like once Cotto sees his own blood, he heads for the hills and starts running like no tomorrow. This is what I see happening in his fight with Mayorga. Cotto, with all his scar tissue over each of his eyes and eyebrows, will start to bleed, and then he’ll start to run to try and keep from bleeding even more. Once he’s cut over both eyes, Cotto will be fighting blind and won’t be able to fight back. He’ll have no choice but to run or get knocked out. I’d like to think that he would stand and trade and go down with the ship, but I guess he’ll run to try and last out the fight.