By Paddy Dwyer: Sometimes in this noble art we are presented with fights which appear to have an obvious outcome. No one truly believed that Audley stood a chance against David Haye. No one truly believes that Derek Chisora has a hope against Wladimir Klitschko. But there is a world title fight on the horizon which seems to draw polarized predictions from fans and writers alike, with their respective advocates incredulously denouncing the views of their counterparts.

Amir Khan (27(17)-1) meets Marcos Maidana (29(27)-1) on 11 December for the WBA light welterweight title. Khan brings a series of impressive performances to the ring while Maidana travels with an excellent KO ratio. Both fighters are rightfully ranked at the top end of their division sharing the top four spots with Tim Bradley and Devon Alexander in what hopefully will become a mini tournament for a recognized number one (with Bradley and Alexander meeting on 29 January). Khan’s critics point to his demolition at the hands of Breidis Prescott two years ago as evidence that Khan lacks the chin to be a top level boxer. Maidana’s critics point to his awkward boxing style and lack of comparative speed to claim that Maidana is made to measure for an improved Khan. Neither fighter has a prime world class opponent on their records. Yet, each camp holds their own man in equal esteem while dismissing the other as a pretender.

As is often the case in this great sport, the truth lies somewhere in between. For me, this fight is not black and white. The outcomes which I can foresee both appear reasonable. Khan to dominate his lumbering opponent, or, Maidana to KO the glass jaw hype job. But, very much like Vegas judges, I am loath to score this an even fight. So, with the above in mind;

Freddie Roach’s latest prodigy seems to have improved no end under the tutelage of boxing’s finest coach. Khan has always been blessed with ridiculously fast hands. He also holds modest power in his shots which makes him an interesting proposition. But what Roach has added to his arsenal is a gameplan to take advantage of his strengths and ensure that his weaknesses are rarely exposed. The Brit is much more suited now to getting his shots off and getting out of danger. This was evident in his impressive win over the respectable Kotelnik eighteen months ago. Concerns have been raised that he was tagged a number of times against Malignaggi in his most recent outing. This is true, but Paulie too has fast hands but is infamous for having no punch. This was not a fight where Khan needed to avoid danger and instead he could focus on developing other parts of his game, namely, his punch output. Against Maidana, Khan faces an impressive puncher but one that lacks a certain amount of guile and speed. I expect that Khan will adopt a similar approach against the hard hitting Argentinian as he did against Kotelnick. That is, land and get out of there.

Maidana is likely to adopt the opposite approach and look to drag Khan into a fight. Khan has been here before and has often ended up in deep waters. In fights with Gomez and Limond, Khan was punished for trying to mix it. But it is not so much the fact that he is dragged into a fight willingly that is a concern, it is the fact that when he is hit his first reaction is not to hold or run, but to go to the trenches where he could be found wanting. Maidana will look to close the ring off and land one of those heavy shots to disorientate the champion and hope that Khan reverts to his old habits and tries to slug his way through the storm. This is where Maidana can prosper.

However, Maidana is no Roberto Duran. While he is a capable boxer and a top contender, he is not world title material. His footwork is clumsy and his shots often wide. He is not a skilled counter puncher and will find Khan too elusive a target. Khan will pepper his way through the first third of this fight with relative ease. As Maidana becomes more and more frustrated he will open himself up to more shots from his opponent. Depending on how much punishment Maidana can take, I see this fight being a clear points win for Amir or a late stoppage. It is true that Maidana has an equalizer in both hands, but the Amir Khan that campaigns today is a different creature to the one wobbled by journeymen on his way to the top. There is also the possibility, however slight, that the move up in weight has improved Khan’s punch resistance. For this, see Miguel Cotto’s 140lb exploits to his performances at 147lbs. This question is yet to be answered as Khan is yet to be hit by a light welterweight that packs a punch. But this fight will not see Maidana ask that question.

For Khan, this fight will cement his presence in the top three of the division. Breaking down the impressive Alexander or Bradley however will be a much more difficult task.