By Nick Bannister: December 11th sees yet another genuine world class fight in what is a superb series of matchups lately. This time around, Light Welterweight Champion Amir Khan takes on mandatory challenger Marcos Maidana. What will be the key factors in this fight, and what can each man do to win?

Many writers on this site have predicted a quick knockout win for Maidana, citing Khan’s early knockout loss to Breidis Prescott as proof he can’t take a good punch, and it is certainly true that Khan folded early when hit with massive shots by the hard hitting Columbian. It is also certainly true that Maidana packs a serious punch, as his battering of Victor Ortiz and his 27 knockouts from 30 fights shows. On first examination there is certainly a case to be made that Khan will get hit and when he does he’ll go down.

However, there is a lot more to this fight than the above analysis, and while someone with Maidana’s power may always score a knockout, there are many other ways this fight can go. Khan was caught cold in the Prescott fight. He had amassed a number of impressive early knockouts, and was hyped by the British press as inevitably the next big thing in boxing. His blazing speed and impressive athleticism had taken him quickly up the ranks, and in the Prescott fight he charged in chin first, as though his only strategy was attack, that victory was formality, and entertainment his main concern. It was a huge misjudgment. While he didn’t go down from the very first punch, the fight was over as soon as Prescott landed it. Khan’s legs buckled and he never recovered.

The knockout loss is certainly a black mark on Khan’s record, and his worst night as a pro, but Khan has done everything he could to atone for it. He has aquired the services of Freddie Roach, moved up to light welterweight (from lightweight), and become a totally different boxer who has five wins on the bounce. Instead of charging in all guns blazing, Khan now fights at range, using his quick feet and long arms to get in and out quickly, throwing a huge number of jabs and double jabs, and slipping counter punches. Since the Prescott fight he has comprehensively outboxed all his opponents, winning a world title from the same Andreas Kotelnik who beat Maidana (admittedly controversially) and came so close to beating Devon Alexander. Most recently, Khan was seen putting on a clinic against the light hitting but highly skilled Paulie Malignaggi, who was stopped in the 11th after a near shutout performance.

Khan looks more natural at light-welterweight, and certainly has the technical skills to be the best at 140. He is tall, fast, has great defence, a great jab and quick hands. His knockout ration of 17 from 23 wins isn’t the very best, but it certainly shows there is power there too. The chin remains a concern, as he hasn’t fought anyone who has really tested it since Prescott, but there is little doubt that Khan is a far more complete and intelligent boxer than he was 2 years ago. While Khan might not yet have a truly spectacular win on his resume, he has beaten (a somewhat faded version of) future hall of famer Marco Antonio Barrera, won a world title from Kotelnik, and hammered top 10 light welterweight Malignaggi, not bad for a 23 year old.

Maidana also has plenty going for him. In the fight against then fast rising Victor Ortiz he not only showed massive power to drop Ortiz repeatedly and then to make him quit, but also resillience to get up quickly from more than one knockdown without showing any real signs of damage. While he fights wide open, he has the conditioning and the heart to get up when a flush punch puts him down, and he has the nasty streak boxers need to hurt their opponents when they most need to. While not as tall or with as big a reach as Khan, Maidana is a good size for a 140 fighter, and packs a lot of muscle on to a narrow frame. His hands are lightning quick, and he can throw quick, effective combinations, as well as having the aggression and pace to dictate a fight and overwhelm an opponent.

However, while there is much to like about the Argentine, there are questions about him too, albeit slightly different onces from Khan.

Firstly, while many consider Khan to lack the names of the very best on his resume, Maidana has beaten even fewer top level opponents. Ortiz was a hot prospect but untested at the top level, and Maidana lost when he faced Kotelnik, though many would disagree with the judges on that particular result. Beyond that, Maidana has beaten local fighters and fringe contenders, and while no one would doubt he has all the offensive power needed, that is not always enough when faced with a top boxer, as Michael Katsidis discovered to his cost against Marquez last week. Khan might not be Marquez, but he probably has a more complete boxing toolkit than anyone Maidana has faced to date, and this poses a question Maidana needs to answer if he can seriously claim to be among the very best in the division.

Secondly, Maidana, like Katsidis, is extremely easy to hit. He fights with a high guard, but does not appear to spend much time in the ring thinking about slipping shots, and as he is used to blowing opponents away, he has not shown signs of being able to counter punch or adjust to an opponents style. As Katsidis found, if the opponent you face is tough enough to take what you throw at them and to keep hitting you back, you will eventually find yourself in trouble. History tells us that boxers without an effective defence eventually come up against someone who can beat them.

So, both men are excellent in different ways with different weaknesses. What can they do to win the fight?

For Khan, he needs to use his far superior reach and ring generalship to keep Maidana at range, and give him the kind of beating he gave Kotelnik and Malignaggi. Get in, hit him 2-3 times, get out. It might not get a spectacular knockout, but it will win rounds and wear Maidana down. Maidana has never been taken in to deep water by a top guy, and that is what Khan needs to do. The longer Maidana is struggling to get Khan in range, the more frustrated he will get, and the easier Khan will find it to hit him.Khan is probably not as effective as Maidana at brawling on the inside, so he needs to keep this to a minimum. A late stoppage or wide decision is probably Khan’s best chance of victory, an early knockout might be a tempting thought but hopefully for Khan Freddie Roach has made sure he doesn’t go for one unless it’s there for the taking.

For Maidana, the opposite is true, the shorter the fight is the better. He has far shorter reach, but is a better brawler and can get punches off faster at close range. If he can get inside Khan, he can start to test whether that chin is as weak as it looked against Prescott. If it is, we could see a repeat of that fight, though I can’t see it being 76 seconds in any case. Maidana must also refuse to get frustrated even if he starts to fall behind on the scorecards. If he starts to throw wild and wide, Khan will pick him off, but if he stays in close to Khan, refusing to let him create distance, Khan will be robbed of his best attributes, and will be forced in to a war, something Maidana is more suited to. Maidana would also do well to try and block at least some shots, as Khan hits hard enough to hurt anyone if you let him land cleanly.

This is a really important fight for both men. The winner will surely get a shot at the winner of Bradley-Alexander next summer, and therefore a shot at genuine undisputed 140 supremacy (presuming Manny doesn’t come back to the division), with the money and accolades that will bring, as well as a possible fight with Marquez, who will probably try for a 140 title if he and Manny don’t go a third time. If Khan is knocked out, his chin will be shown up as a major issue, and it will probably be forever a serious hurdle to living up to his huge potential. If Maidana is out boxed, he will have to go away and add some new skills to his repertoire in order to seriously trouble the best in the division. Both would likely have to come through a number of talented guys (Judah, Matthysse, Kotelnik, Ortiz, Rios, Peterson etc) to get another title shot.

So, what will tell in the fight? As we have seen in the last three weeks with Pacquiao and Marquez, the better boxer usually beats the more powerful man, and that analysis certainly favours the classier and more technical Khan. I think Khan is good enough to keep Maidana where he wants him, and to do a similar job as he did on Malignaggi last time out, though he will certainly take more punishment than he did that time out. Khan will take some big shots, and might well go down, but his improved conditioning and the sparring with Pacquiao should have improved his chin enough to stand up to it. I would predict a late stoppage coming before what would have been a clear points win for Amir, on the way to a showdown with Bradley (who I think will beat Alexander) next year. However, one of Maidana’s massive right hands could make all Khan’s skill irrelevent. Khan on balance, but Maidana with a (massive) puncher’s chance.