by Matt Stein: Former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-2, 32 KO’s) is facing Bryan Vera (17-5, 11 KO’s), a former contestant for the ESPN2 reality television series The Contender on the Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito undercard on November 13th at the Cowboys Stadium, in Arlington, Texas.

This is supposed to be an easy comeback opponent for the 28-year-old Pavlik to saw through in hopes he can get his sinking career back in order. However, as bad as Pavlik has looked in the past couple of years, he may not get by even Vera.

This is a 10 round bout, and Vera has a really good chin, and big power in his right hand. Pavlik generally does well against fighters that stand in front of him all night long like Vera will likely be doing. However, Pavlik has taken an awful lot of punishment in his fights with Edison Miranda, Jermain Taylor, Bernard Hopkins, Miguel Angel Espino and Sergio Martinez.

All those shots seemed to have accumulated in his last fight, as Martinez was able to hit Pavlik at will in the 2nd half of the fight and it was like he was hitting a punching bag. Pavlik’s face was ripped apart over his eyes and he had problems seeing.

The cuts have since healed but there’s going to be vulnerable scar tissue that can be opened up if Vera can stick around long enough and hit Pavlik hard enough to get the blood flowing again. As we saw in Pavlik’s losses to Hopkins and Martinez, he fights a lot different once he’s cut.

Pavlik is less of a warrior and seems to stop punching as much once he’s cut. He also has problems when his opponents jumps out quickly and does well right off the bat. Pavlik seems to get down on himself and doesn’t make adjustments and doesn’t up to his ability.

Vera, if nothing else, is a fighter that starts well and looks good early in his fights. If he can some early success against Pavlik and get him bleeding, we could see a huge upset on November 13th.

At this point, I wouldn’t even call it a huge upset because Pavlik isn’t really the same fighter he was three years ago. He seems to have declined noticeably to the point where it’s hard to see a future for him in the middleweight division other than a gatekeeper for the up and coming middleweights.