Chavez-Gomez: Will Julio get through this fight?

By Boxing News - 10/15/2010 - Comments

By Dan Ambrose: Undefeated middleweight contender Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (41-0-1, 30 KO’s) wants to get a big money fight with Manny Pacquiao in 2011. And with both Chavez and Pacquiao sharing the same promoter Bob Arum, Chavez stands a very good chance of getting a crack at the Filipino star, even if it Chavez Jr. doesn’t deserve to fight Pacquiao. However, before Chavez Jr. can face Pacquiao next year, has the not so simple task of having to beat welterweight contender Alfonso Gomez (22-4-2, 11 KO’s on December 4th in their fight at the Honda Center, in Anaheim, California. Gomez, 29, is ranked #3 IBF, #5 WBC and #9 WBO in the welterweight rankings.

He’s got good power, and an aggressive heavy pressure style of fighting. In truth, Gomez is probably ranked way too high by these sanctioning organizations, because I see Gomez as a 2nd tier welterweight all the way. However, he’s a good B level fighter, but he lacks size, speed and big power. He doesn’t punch as hard the much bigger Chavez Jr. and he’s not nearly the same size as Chavez. He’s a lot smaller, but that seems to be by design.

Chavez Jr. isn’t fighting top fighters from his own middleweight class, because that would mean he would have to risk his neck and his unbeaten record against the likes of Anthony Mundine and Gennady Golovkin, among others, and I don’t think Chavez has the talent to beat those kinds of fighters. Hence he’s matched against the welterweight Gomez.

Their fight will be held at middleweight, so Gomez is going to have to come up in weight two entire divisions to make the fight. That’s likely going to put Gomez at a disadvantage because it’s almost unheard of to pool from opponents two divisions beneath yours unless a fighter is looking for a mismatch and a sure thing win. However, Chavez Jr. isn’t really a top notch middleweight, so this fight could be a toss-up.

Chavez Jr. is more like a fringe middleweight contender to a B level fighter. If you were to take the best 15 fighters in the middleweight, I wouldn’t have Chavez Jr. in the top 15. He’s more of a B quality fighter. He’s obviously ranked high in the middleweight division for a variety of reasons, one of them being that the sanctioning bodies allow for different fighters to have greatly inflated rankings.

So I think Gomez has a chance here in this fight, because it’s really a fight between a good B level welterweight and a B level middleweight. Usually, a fighter that’s two divisions above another fighter tends to win, but you really can’t say for sure because Chavez Jr. has looked so awful in many of his fights. Some people excited about his win over John Duddy recently, but I see that as one B fighter beating another B fighter. It wasn’t as if Chavez actually beat a quality guy like Golovkin. I see Chavez getting knocked cold by that guy, but he would probably never fight him.



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