Photo credit: Tom Casino/Showtime – By Chris Williams: Andre Ward (21-0, 13 KO’s) is seemingly facing one of the most confident fighters he’s probably ever faced in his entire six year pro career in Allan Green (29-1, 20 KO’s) tonight in their Super Six bout at the Oracle Arena, in Oakland, California. It doesn’t matter that Green has never beat a true top tier fighter in his entire eight-year pro career and that’s been incredibly slow in getting up to the top tier level, the man sounds sure that’s going to win tonight. I wish I could believe that, because when I turn off the sound bites and ignore the words that Green has said in interviews. I see nothing in any of his fights that would suggest that he’ll do anything but lose to Ward and lose badly. But, man, it’s scary how confident Green is.

It’s too bad he’s unproven and has looked mediocre in the two fights where he was put in with reasonably good competition. Green says “Ward looked good against Kessler, but I’m not Kessler. Mikkel Kessler really couldn’t deal with a lot of the things that Andre was doing. I’m a slick guy and I’m a sharp guy. I’ll fight however my opponent wants to fight.” It’s strange how Green started off in the early stages of the pre-fight hype talking about how he was going to take Ward out with his power shots.

However, when the general consensus formed that Ward probably be too slick for Green and likely outsmart him, Green has begun to say that he’s a slick fighter and will use his ring smarts to beat Ward. In all the fights I’ve seen of Green, he’s never at any time looked like a slick fighter. He’s always been the type that would go right at his badly overmatched opponents and steamroller them with power shots. On the rare occasions that Green would meet up with someone that didn’t fold immediately, he would looked unsure of himself and his work rate would drop off dramatically as the rounds went on.

A lot of Green’s knockouts have come early and in the five fights where he’s been forced to go 10 rounds, he’s looked tired and listless in the 2nd half of the fight. Tonight, Green is going to have to go 12 rounds, which is two rounds longer than he’s ever fought before. I don’t think Green will be able to do it without fading badly.

But I expect Green to start slowing down after the first three rounds when he discovers that Ward isn’t going anywhere. Green’s work rate will then drop off to nothing, causing him to fall into the Kessler role of just standing and receiving shots as Ward jumps in and out all night to carve up and badly punish Green for the duration of the fight. I can see Ward getting a stoppage in this fight because Green is going to get hit a lot and I still can’t shake the image of Green flopping around in the 10th round in his fight against Edison Miranda in 2007.