By Chris Williams: At today’s weigh-in, light middleweight Sergio Martinez (44-2-2, 24 KO’s) looked like a winner already, as he exuded confidence in front of the Atlantic City crowd. If there was ever a fighter that you would think was a winner ahead of time, it would be the 35-year-old Martinez. He came across as charismatic and confident in front of the pro-Pavlik crowd, many of which booed him loudly as Martinez was being introduced. Martinez weighed in at 159.5, and looked incredibly toned. In contrast, WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-1, 32 KO”s) came across as his regular unassuming self, somebody that would melt into any crowd and likely be ignored and forgotten.

Pavlik, looking like a tall, skinny fighter without much muscle, weighed 159.5. He looked very pale and not all that confident. Martinez looks like he’s already got the win in the bag, and I believe he will win. Pavlik is coming into this fight having beaten a bunch of mediocre middleweights in the past three years, and he’s really done himself no favors by not stepping up and trying to fight better fighters.

Pavlik’s promoter Bob Arum or Top Rank thinks that Pavlik will regain his lost popularity with boxing fans if he can beat Martinez on Saturday night. In an interview with ESPN, Arum says “The public is very fickle. They caught onto Kelly leading up to, and including, the Taylor. Then there has been a falloff – His performance against Hopkins and the injury and so forth. But I am convinced, beyond any measure, that we are going to see the old Kelly Pavlik against Martinez, and as soon as we see that and as soon as the public sees that, he [Pavlik] will be right back on top and people will be clamoring for his next fight.” I doubt it.

Pavlik has been facing too many obscure opponents for too long and he’s really hurt himself with the boxing fans. His fights against Gary Lockett, Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino did nothing for him nor did his fight against 44-year-old Bernard Hopkins. What boxing fans wanted to see were competitive fights like the ones he had with Jermain Taylor and Edison Miranda. What they got instead was three years of mismatches and cancelled fights with Paul Williams.

Even if Pavlik does beat Martinez, a light middleweight, on Saturday night, Pavlik will still probably not win back the fans that he lost with those dull mismatches and his loss to Hopkins. For Pavlik to win fans back, he’s going to have to beat Martinez, fight and beat Paul Williams in spectacular fashion, line up a fight with Lucian Bute and beat him. If Pavlik can do all that, then I see him getting back to where he was three years ago. But the problem is I see Pavlik losing badly to Martinez tomorrow night, and then losing to Paul Williams later on this year.

Actually, I doubt Pavlik will even fight Williams if he loses to Martinez on Saturday night. I see Pavlik fighting another in house Top Rank fighter, 38-year-old Winky Wright next. That fight won’t do much more than Pavlik’s other fights against his obscure opposition in winning over fans. By then, with a loss to Martinez, Pavlik would be facing an uphill climb in trying to win back fans. I think he would better off at that point moving up to the super middleweight division and trying his luck there.

The card is lacking in competitive matches. In fact, other than the Pavlik-Martinez fight, there are really no other interesting bouts in the Top Rank card. Ronald Hearns, Dominic Guinn, Mike Jones and Matt Korobov are all fighting on the undercard, but they’re matched soft. I don’t see one competitive fight on the undercard worth watching.

Other weights:

Dominic Guinn 229.5, Terrell Nelson 252
Jeremy Bryan 142, Vincent Arroyo 142
Delray Raines 157, Ronald Hearns 155
Chris Hazimihalis 136, Ramon Ellis 138
Hector Munoz 146, Mike Jones 146
Josh Snyder 159.5, Matt Korobov 160
James Winchester 153.5, Glen Tapia 152
Randy Campbell 167, Mike Tiberi 168.5