By Dan Ambrose: Writer Bert Sugar thinks that five-time world champion Shane Mosley has what it takes to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. tomorrow night at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas. While most people seem to think that Mayweather will win the fight, Sugar thinks that Mosley’s reach and hand speed will be a big factor in him winning the fight. In article at Reuters, Sugar says “Mayweather has never met anybody as fast as Mosley. Even at 38 (years old) and 90 percent of what he was, that’s still fast. He’s big and bigger.”

The 38-year-old Mosley has a reach of 74 inches compared to Mayweather’s 72”. That may not be as much of a factor as Sugar thinks it will if Mosley crowds Mayweather like he often does with his opponents. There’s no doubt that Mosley has lost at least 10% of what he used to be, but then again, Mayweather appears to have lost a little himself from what he once was a few years ago. Mayweather is still blazing fast, but he doesn’t have quite the same reflexes he used to have. In his last fight against Juan Manuel Marquez, Mayweather was hit with right hands that came from a mile away it seemed.

Those shots wouldn’t have landed against a younger Mayweather. Sugar thinks that Mosley’s left hand will be the key to him beating Mayweather, not his right hand. The reason he feels this way is because Sugar is remembering how effective Oscar De La Hoya was in the first six rounds in his fight with Mayweather back in 2007. De La Hoya jabbed Mayweather continuously in the first six rounds, piling up a small lead.

However, for some reason De La Hoya decided to brawl with Mayweather in the second half of the fight and didn’t do nearly as well at that part of the game. Mayweather then came on and won enough rounds in the second half of the fight to earn a 12 round split decision. Sugar thinks that Mosley will be able to do the same thing. I’m not so sure about that, though. Mosley has never been a fighter that throws a lot of jabs in his fights, and it’s hard to imagine that he’ll all of a sudden start in this fight.

Mosley is more into throwing combinations then pecking away at his opponents with a jab. I don’t think Sugar sees Mosley for the kind of fighter he is. He’s not a pure boxer and he won’t be comfortable sitting back and jabbing Mayweather all night long, even though it could very well be effective if Mosley were to employ that game plan tomorrow night. Oddly enough, Sugar thinks that Mayweather will be the rustier fighter of the two rather than Mosley. Mayweather just fought in September against Marquez, whereas Mosley hasn’t fought since January 2009.

Again, I think Sugar is wrong about this as well. If anyone is going to be rusty, it’s probably going to be Mosley. Not fighting for nearly a year and half has got to be hard on a fighter who is 38. I know Mayweather hasn’t been all that active in the past three years, but he’s still young at 33.