By Chris Williams: On April 17th, WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik has a tough test in front of him against the elusive and intelligent Sergio Martinez. Pavlik hasn’t fought anyone close to as being as elusive and versatile as Martinez will likely be. In a match up skills vs. skills, Martinez wins this fight hands down. He’s a much better overall fighter compared to the somewhat one-dimensional Pavlik.

However, Pavlik may not need to be as good of a boxer as Martinez, because with his big power, Pavlik could end up taking Martinez out if he can connect with a big enough shot. Pavlik has the height and strength advantage in this fight, perhaps by a big margin. Martinez struggled in the past when he was matched against the hard hitting Kermit Cintron last year.

Martinez had to settle for a 12 round draw. The fight was badly scored and it should have been a 9th round knockout win or at least a decision or Martinez. If you ignore the poor call on his knockdown of Cintron in the 9th, as well as the needless point deduction in the 12th, Martinez still had problems with Cintron’s power and didn’t fight as aggressively as he normally does.

Pavlik may not have the best of boxing skills, but he does have crushing power in both hands. If he can land his huge punches, he has a good chance of stopping Martinez. What Pavlik has to hope for a couple of things in this fight: 1. That Martinez is crazy enough to stand directly in front of Pavlik for 12 rounds like most of Pavlik’s overmatched opponents have foolishly done in the past? 2. Pavlik needs to get lucky and land something big enough to stun Martinez so that he can be fished off with a series of hard shots.

Given that Martinez is a smart fighter, I don’t see him going for the first option of just standing in front of Pavlik trying to trade shots. That’s not how Martinez fights, and if Pavlik is hoping he’ll do that to make things easier for him, he’s going to be sadly mistaken. If Pavlik is going to win, he’s going to have to load up with everything he throws and hope that one of his shots is big enough to hurt Martinez.

Pavlik punches hard with every shot he throws, so it’s not going to be asking him to do anything that he normally doesn’t already do. But he’s going to have to be able to hit a moving target, and not just some poor shmuck that the WBC and WBO have pushed to the top of their rankings. Martinez is actually a good fighter, unlike the other contenders that Pavlik has mowed down in the past couple of years.

Pavlik proved to be horrible at hitting Bernard Hopkins in their fight in 2008. Hopkins used basic lateral movement that a lot of boxer/punchers normally use, and had Pavlik looking confused and pretty much helpless. Martinez is an even more mobile fighter than Hopkins, and you have to wonder how Pavlik is going to land at all with any regularity.

Martinez, however, isn’t as big as Hopkins and Pavlik, and is much less rugged. That may help Pavlik if he can land one of his punches, but I don’t see Pavlik landing enough to win a decision. It’s going to come down whether or not he can knock Martinez out with a big shot. If he can’t, I think Pavlik will lose and end up being humiliated like he was in his fight with Hopkins.