By Sean McDaniel: Roy Jones Jr. (54-5, 40 KO’s) better watch out on Wednesday night and keep his guard up at all times, because International Boxing Organization cruiserweight champion Danny Green (27-3, 24 KO’s) will be knocking the 40-year-old Jones’ head clean off on Wednesday night in their title fight at the Acer Arena, in Sydney, Australia. In an interview with the AAP, Green, 36, said “I won’t name which punch, but there’s one punch, if I hit him [Jones] clean with it, he is going to be knocked out for a week.”

If Jones didn’t have a history of suffering bad knockout defeats to Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson, and if Green didn’t have such huge power in both hands, you could ignore what Green is saying. However, Jones was knocked out in back to back fights in 2004, first by Tarver and then by Johnson. Since then, Jones hasn’t been knocked out again, but then again he’s faced largely limited opposition over the past five years.

Jones fought defensively in his third rubber match with Tarver in 2005, losing the fight by a 12 round decision, and getting staggered when he did finally try to show some aggression in the 11th round. Jones has faced a washed up Felix Trinidad, a faded Jeff Lacy and Omar Sheika, beating all three easily. In 2008, Jones tried stepping up the level of his competition and faced Joe Calzaghe, losing by a one-sided 12 round decision. Jones looked every bit his age in that fight and never presented any problems for Calzaghe.

However, despite any real quality wins in the past five years, Jones is still considered the favorite to beat Green on Wednesday night, perhaps because of Jones’ much greater experience. Boxing experts are likely looking at Jones’s experience, and much better hand speed and assuming that he’ll be able to get by Green based on those factors alone.

They might be making a mistake, though, because Jones’ hasn’t faced a big puncher like Green in the past four years. The question is whether Jones can stay away from Green and avoid getting hit with one of his big shots. Jones’ legs will need to carry him for a full 12 rounds, because he can’t afford to retreat to the ropes like he’s done frequently in his fights in the past five years.

Green will batter Jones if Roy lays on the ropes and tries to rest his weary legs. In the center of the ring, Jones has a better chance of avoiding Green’s shots. However, even there, Jones won’t be able to avoid everything that Green throws his way, so he’s going to have to count on his chin to take Green’s big shots. I see Green winning this fight if Jones spends too much time on the ropes. Green will catch him and take him out.