By Jemique Harris: The highly anticipated match up between Manny Pacquiao is here and boxing fans are on edge. The vaunted gauntlet has been thrown down and now we will finally witness the aftermath. Pacquiao is a freak of nature who fights with the ferocity of the brush fire, exploding violently at the blink of an eye. Cotto, is the patient predator who relentlessly stalks and corners his prey only to be pound it into submission. Pacquiao is trying to achieve a record 7 belts in 7 weight classes, something that has eluded the all time greats.

Cotto is trying to stalk his way to greatness and eliminate his opponents one by one with the cold calculating efficiency of the terminator.

In my analysis of the fight, instead of concentrating on each fighter’s strong points, I will focus each fighter’s weakness since I believe the weaknesses will determine who will be helped off the canvas.

Pacquiao’s weaknesses include: Marching forward with out providing angles, standing straight up with little head movement and holding his guard high leaving his ribs exposed. (result) Cotto throws a series of jabs (which will be picked off by Pacquiao) but gets Cotto into prime positon to throw thundering left hooks/uppercuts to the body negating the speed of Pacquiao.

Pacquiao likes to thump his gloves together after he gets hit and charges in as if to say “let’s get it on!” (result) Cotto agrees and hits Pacquiao with a barrage of head and body shots that crumble the rambunctious Filipino warrior.

Pacquiao has limited boxing skills and relies too much on his straight left (result) Cotto times pacquiao leaping in to throw a straight left and catches Pacquiao coming in with a left hook or straight right ending the fight. Or Cotto figures Pacquiao out that Pacquiao’s best defense his his offense and begins to break him down in the middle stages of the fight.

Now let’s move on to Cotto ahd his weaknesses.

Cotto’s weaknesses include: starting off strong but fading in the later rounds (result) Pacquiao weathers the storm of the first 5 rounds and punishes Cotto in the latter half of the fight with blistering straight lefts and right hooks to the head.

Cotto has developed scar tissue above his left eye. (result) whether the result of a headbutt or punch Paquiao, can target the cut and force the fight to be stopped on points or make Cotto uncomfortable enough to throw his game plan out the window.

Cotto is not fighting in Madison Square Garden and both fighters have the same promoter. (result) Pacquiao has a great chance to win if he stays busy in the latter rounds provided he is still around and in the fight (no home cooking in vegas for Cotto)

Cotto tends to fight “flat footed” in order to generate power in his punches. (result) Pacquiao pot shots Cotto and frustrates him and makes it a long night for Cotto.

In the end, I believe that Although Pacquiao is indeed a freak of nature who can carry his speed and power into the higher weight classes, Pacquiao lacks the boxing skills, size and defense to keep Cotto at bay for 12 rounds. The flip side of that is Cotto will underestimate Pacquiao’s sustained energy/speed and power. Cotto is not hard to hit and may possibly go on to lose on points. Both have the tools to win but which ever fighter exposes the other’s weakness will prevail. On a side note, if the fight is a barn-burner and highly competitive, expect an immediate rematch which will keep Bob Arum unaware that we are in a recession.