By Caesar Almase: So many articles and news feeds have been written about this great fight, that a person really has to do some thinking if he is going to come up with any new or, as yet, unacknowledged points to ponder. As a fan of boxing in general and Manny Pacquiao specifically, I have read and watched a great deal of the media coverage, and there are a few things I haven’t seen discussed. Being a Manny guy, I’ll try to be as neutral in my analysis as possible, but please take my thoughts with that grain of salt.

One, Pacquiao’s fight with Oscar provides a road map for a winning strategy against Miguel Cotto. Oscar De La Hoya, like Cotto, is a converted southpaw and does most, if not practically all, of his work from the left side. Oscar, like Cotto, positions his body to throw the left hand with maximum effect, and often keeps the left hand cocked, looking to throw it. Therefore, Pacquiao will likely approach his fight with Miguel in the same way as his fight with Oscar: throwing lead lefts and then ducking under and circling away from the left side; popping the body with his right; and then as the fight progresses, stringing together longer combinations. Cotto is obviously a better fighter than Oscar at this stage and is capable of making adjustments during a fight. This should keep the fight much more competitive than the Oscar fight, however, like De La Hoya, Miguel will not have faced an opponent as fast and as dynamic as Pacquiao. This segues into–

Point two: Miguel Cotto will not be able effectively adjust to Manny’s style. Miguel has never faced anyone who fights with an in-out, side-to-side style, and who takes full advantage of his fast hands and feet like Manny. Granted, Malignaggi, Zab Judah, and Shane Mosley have fast hands, and Miguel was able to beat them to the punch and counter effectively. However, no one has faster hands than Manny, and more importantly, no one moves around the ring like him. The three aforementioned fighters stood in front of Miguel and didn’t operate at angles. Moreover, all three were deficient in some way that Manny is not: Malignaggi lacked power, Judah lacked heart, and Mosley lacked skill. This last statement is open to debate, but no one should argue that Mosley is well past his prime, while Manny is still in his. Manny has evolved into the most dynamic fighter in any weight class—he stays in constant motion, making his opponents tentative and wondering where he will be next. Miguel will make adjustments as the fight progresses, but it will probably not be enough and will come too late.

Three, the pressure on Miguel will affect his fight strategy and could be a factor in a knockout. Although he is bigger, stronger, and the belt holder, very few people think Miguel will win. He has taken all-comers in his weight division and, except for Margarito, has beaten them all. Regardless of his stoicism, one has to think that all the disrespect being leveled against him as the underdog in this fight, has affected him, and perhaps positively. I think not. Miguel may be coming into this fight looking to prove something and if he loses the first few rounds, which is a very likely scenario, the pressure to reassert himself and to dispatch of the smaller man, could get the better of Miguel. He is, if nothing else, a proud Latino fighter full of machismo. I look for him to take more risks (and maybe resort to some dirt tactics) as the fight progresses, thereby opening himself up to cleaner shots, more sustained attacks, and ultimately a knockout. If he can take a page out of Marquez’s playbook, by staying patient and employing an overhand right, he could have some success. I just don’t see it playing out that way because Miguel will be more about brawling and less about timing the smaller fighter. Moreover the Marquez strategy would have limited success against this current version of Manny, as he doesn’t fight so straight up and toe-to-toe anymore.

This will be a very exciting fight, and the outcome is by no means a foregone conclusion. Miguel is a very skilled boxer and brings attributes—size and strength, which Manny will have to overcome like never before. Miguel is easily the most dangerous fighter Manny has ever faced, and the fight could end, or at least turn, very suddenly if Miguel can capitalize on a mistake. In the final analysis though, I think Manny will be too much for Miguel and an accumulation of power shots ends the fight in the 9th or 10th.