By Dave Lahr: On paper, the match-up between World Boxing Council heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko and challenger Kevin Johnson looks like a mismatch in favor of the 38-year-old Ukrainian Vitali. Thankfully, the bout won’t take place on paper and will be inside of a square ring at the PostFinance Arena, Berne, Switzerland. To be sure, most boxing experts see Johnson as a huge underdog in this fight and are giving him very little chance to beat Klitschko on December 12th.

I think they’re all wrong and Johnson, 30, is going to make a huge upset by beating Klitschko by decision. I don’t think for a second that Johnson has the power to hurt Vitali. It’s pretty clear that Johnson has little power to speak of and probably won’t be able to score a knockout over Vitali unless the 6’7 1’2″ Klitschko falls apart physically in the middle of the ring.

I know Vitali has a history of injuries but I’m guessing that this fight won’t be the physical type that will make Vitali exert himself to the point where he’ll suffer a blow of some sorts to a body part. But I do think this bout is going to wind up being a chess match with Johnson, the much better jabber of the two, controlling the fight from the outside with his superior jab. Boxing experts only seem to be looking at Vitali’s 4 1/2″ height advantage over the 6’3″ Johnson and are ignoring completely the two inch reach advantage that Johnson will have in this fight.

Height means nothing. It’s the reach that counts in the ring. And with an excellent jab like the one that Johnson has, he’s going to be able to bombard the 38-year-old Klitschko from the outside all night long without having to worry about getting hit by any of Vitali’s big right hands or left hooks. That’s a huge advantage for Johnson, believe me. If Johnson was stupid enough to try and take the fight to Vitali and trade shots, I don’t think for a second that Johnson would last any more than six rounds or so.

Vitali is simply too strong and too sturdy to go after in that manner. Where Vitali is vulnerable is on the outside where he can be hit with jabs without having to worry about his power shots. Chris Byrd and Lennox Lewis found success in using their jab against Vitali. Byrd even tired Vitali out in the later rounds by pressuring him. Johnson may likely be able to do the exact same thing. When you have an old fighter like Vitali, the last thing you want to do is attack them the way that his last opponent Chris Arreola attempted to do in their fight in September.

That was really foolish for Arreola to do. What he needed to do is take the old fighter deep, make him use his old legs and then once he’s in the deep end, you drown Klitschko by pouring it on and making him work much harder than his older body will let him., That’s how Johnson can beat Klitschko, and that’s exactly what he will do.

Johnson has already indicated that he’s going to use his long reach and excellent jab to box Klitschko from the outside. I don’t see much that Vitali will be able to do about it. Johnson is eight years younger than Vitali, the faster puncher and with a chin just as good as Vitali. On December 12th, Johnson is going to shock the world.