By Chris Williams: Not long from now, Shane Mosley (45-5, 38 KOs) will step foot in the ring and attempt to take the WBA title from champion Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KOs) at the Staples Center, in Los Angeles, California. Mosley, 37, will be facing a stern task in having to deal with the younger, stronger and much busier Margarito tonight. However, if there’s any welterweight fighter on the planet that has the ability to pull off the upset, it’s Mosley.
Few people are giving him much of a chance at beating Margarito, however. But Mosley may have enough left to open some people’s eyes and surprise them. Mosley has the brain trust Bernard Hopkins on his side, his fellow Golden Boy Promotions employee, helping him with coming up with a plan to defeat Margarito. Shane has more things going for him than most people think, starting with his fast hand speed, ability to move around the ring and his short, compact punches.
Believe me, he’s going to need all three areas working for him if he’s to defeat Margarito tonight. Mosley is asking a lot of his 37 year-old body and will be putting a lot of stress on it to have to handle the nearly nonstop punches that Margarito will be bringing to him. Movement will be a key for Mosley, because he can’t stand and trade shots with a fighter like Margarito round after round without getting hurt by him.
But Mosley has to be selective in the amount of time that he spends moving around the ring, because his old wheels likely won’t be able to sustain constant movement around the ring for long without him running out of gas. In that case, Mosley needs to run just enough to throw Margarito off balance for a period of time, and then when he gets close, Mosley needs to clinch with him to keep him from getting off his punches.
When on the move, Mosley needs to jab without stop, shooting the punches into the face of Margarito and scoring points with the judges. When Mosley is eventually cornered and forced to fight, he would do well to throw his short, fast punches to the head of Margarito, and then either clinch him or move away, giving him angles.
Miguel Cotto, who was defeated by Margarito in a 11th round TKO in July, made the mistake of not clinching often with him. In watching the fight, it seems pretty clear now that Cotto made a serious mistake in not tying Margarito up, because if he had done it even a little bit in the 10th and 11th rounds, he would have stood a good chance of defeating Margarito.
Shane is going to need to make sure he can slow Margarito down as much as possible, and if that means clinching, so be it. Clinching is part of the game and there’s no shame in doing that. If Mosley doesn’t choose to clinch, I doubt he can move long enough to keep from getting knocked out by Margarito. I think the referee will let Mosley get away with a lot of clinching, much more than other fighters that don’t have the popularity that he has.
So, when Margarito is in close, Mosley needs to fire off some fast combinations and then clinch immediately. After being separated, Mosley should then hit Margarito with three or four more fast shots and then escape to the outside and start firing off jabs.
When Margarito comes in close, Mosley should repeat the process again, throwing flurries, clinching and then throwing more flurries after the clinch is separated. If Mosley can follow that game plan, I can see him winning tonight. It won’t be easy, but it’s possible.
Prediction: Mosley by 12-round decision.
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