By James Hughe: After defeating Roy Jones Jr., Joe Calzaghe is now 46-0, but some people will still question how much he has achieved. He’s achieved a lot as it happens, and he’s now just 3 short of Rocky Marciano’s 49-0 and 4 short of the half century, which would be the record outright. Having only fought twice a year for the past 4-5 years, JC probably has enough left in the tank to still make it to either 49-0 or the big five-O. But how?
There are 2 realistic options – staying at light-heavyweight or dropping back down to super-middleweight – but the latter may be somewhat harder to make now he’s spent time as a light-heavy. Although I’ve seen Oscar De la Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr. mentioned on internet forums, neither is big enough to make a fight with JC anything other than wishful, “what if?” thinking. It would be the sort of thing for computer-generated simulations like they did in the latest ‘Rocky’ film (for Rocky and his opponent Mason Dixon), except it’d never actually materialize into a super-fight in real life.
Therefore, let’s look at both the light-heavy and super-middle weight divisions.
Light-Heavyweight
This division offers the prospect of a rematch with Bernard Hopkins, a future Hall of Famer. However, the first fight was awkward and not great to watch because of Hopkins’ spoiling tactics. His in-fight conduct, and pre/post fight conduct, would be good reasons for declining this option; Hopkins arguably doesn’t deserve the rematch. However, the fight was close and a split decision on JC’s record. Winning a rematch should silence some doubters.
Light-heavyweight also has a much different opponent available – Chad Dawson. He’s much younger and faster than Hopkins, possibly a bit stronger too. Whether he is another over-hyped prospect like Kelly Pavlik is open to debate. I’ve not seen much of him so wouldn’t be willing to pass judgement yet. He’s got a good win (albeit on home soil) over the previously undefeated Tomasz Adamek, a somewhat closer one against veteran Glen Johnson and recently overwhelmed another veteran, Antonio Tarver, to win the IBF belt. However, Tarver is clearly past his best and by fighting him Dawson avoided travelling to Romania for a WBC mandatory defence against Adrian Diaconu. Staying at home, and fighting boxers who are past their best, are both criticisms that JC has been labelled with in the past. If they can be labelled at Calzaghe (which I personally think is harsh), they have to be labelled at Dawson too (or at neither fighter!) One rule for all, not one rule for one and one for another.
As for other potential opponents at light-heavy, Johnson and Tarver aren’t worthwhile (see above) and Jones Jr. in a rematch doesn’t add anything to JC’s legacy given their recent fight. Sure, they might provide two more wins (and names) on the way to 49 or 50, and they might generate some cash, but that’s all I’m afraid. Tarver/Johnson-Jones-Dawson-???
That leaves just one other opponent, Denmark’s Mikkel Kessler. Could he the man for JC’s next fight?
Mikkel Kessler
In their first fight, Kessler showed his power, technique, speed, chin and heart were all there. In fact, I had him ahead after the first half of the fight, but JC came back and showed that he possessed each of those assets as well though, taking a deserved UD victory. Nevertheless, Kessler no doubt sees this as unfinished business; if he could secure a rematch, he’d probably have the best chance of any fighter to end JC’s unbeaten record.
If the fight was at light-heavyweight, JC would start the favourite because he’s had time to adjust to the new weight and has done so successfully. This would be even more of an advantage if Kessler simply stepped up and didn’t take a fight at light-heavy before facing Calzaghe again. If held at super-middleweight, the advantage is a lot less. Calzaghe may have trouble making the weight whereas making light-heavy is a breeze for him in comparison. For that reason, the fairest option may be to fight at a catch-weight. Regardless of which weight the fight is made at though, it has all the makings of another classic, just as the first fight was.
Super-Middleweight
If JC could make it back to down to super-middleweight again, there is another route to the magic number (be that 49 or 50). In fact, this division is coming back to the boil again nicely. Aside from the obvious choice, Kessler (who has since regained and defended his WBA crown), there are a couple of other potential opponents, assuming the next round of fights work out suitably.
Carl Froch, Britain’s second best super-middleweight, has been calling Calzaghe out for some time. Up until now though, he’s not done anything on a big enough stage to warrant such a fight. However, if he wins the WBC belt against Jean Pascal next month, he puts himself in the picture. To really make a credible case though, he needs to not only win that belt, but defend it against the winner of the WBC’s eliminator between Jermain Taylor and former Calzaghe-victim Jeff Lacy. Wins in these two fights would push Froch’s stock up significantly. The problem is that it would take until next summer at the earliest, before Froch is in a position to challenge Calzaghe. If JC retires, or opts for a farewell-fight (at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium), that rules Froch out.
Of course, if Froch wins the bout against Pascal but then loses to Taylor, that rules him out anyway. The plus side of that though, is the making of Taylor as a possible opponent. This is despite two losses to Kelly Pavlik (who himself is no longer a viable option after losing comprehensively to Hopkins), because both could have been avoided. Taylor should have finished Pavlik off early in the first fight or stepped on the gas harder late in the second. By beating Froch and Lacy, Taylor arguably seals the number 2 spot in the super-middleweight division and a crack at either Kessler (if Calzaghe retires or lost a rematch to Kessler) or JC himself (if he beats Kessler in a rematch, or opts to fight Taylor for the WBC title). The problem with this though, is the same as with Froch; it takes until next summer before the fight can be made with a title on the line.
Having said all that though, there are a couple of spanners that could be thrown in the works. Pascal could beat Froch, which rules Froch out. Lacy could beat Taylor, which rules Taylor out. Given the way Calzaghe demolished Lacy in the finest performance I’ve ever seen from a British boxer, it also does not put Lacy back in the picture. If Froch or Taylor wins, but then loses to Lacy or Pascal respectively, then they are of course both ruled out again.
What the Froch/Taylor route has the advantage of doing is allowing Calzaghe an easy home-coming fight; he can destroy Russia’s Denis Inkin with ease and reclaim his WBO belt. Alternatively, he could take on Canadian-based Romanian Lucian Bute for IBF strap. This would be tougher than fighting Inkin as Bute is the current number 2 in the super-middleweight division, but it would still be against a fighter who isn’t in the same class as Calzaghe. However, neither fight adds anything to Calzaghe’s legacy, nor do they generate the paydays he has now become accustomed to. Furthermore, JC may have some difficulty in motivating himself for an opponent on the level of Inkin in particular, and to a lesser extent, Bute.
These fights do have one other advantage; they would set up unification contests with Kessler (WBA), and win permitting, later with Froch/Taylor (WBC). Ideally, if this route were chosen, whichever of the WBO or IBF that Calzaghe didn’t pursue, Kessler would do so. This would put 3 of the 4 titles on the line again, just like the first Calzaghe vs. Kessler fight. So, we have Inkin/Bute – Kessler – Froch/Taylor as a route to 49 wins and a unification of all four major titles in the super-middleweight division. Previously, JC has unified and defended WBO and IBF, then later unified WBO with WBA/WBC. This route would see him claim all 4 of them, while the contests against Kessler and Froch/Taylor should generate decent revenue, though whether they’d compare to fighting big names in the light-heavyweight division is debatable. The money from fighting Dawson, Jones Jr. or Hopkins again, or even the likes of Tarver and Johnson, is probably significantly more.
Looking beyond JC’s legacy or money, boxing politics may even scupper things.
Both divisions offer routes to 49-0 or 50-0, if JC wants it. Light-heavyweight has the cash, super-middleweight has the titles. A combination of the two is probably needed to further JC’s legacy, which is already well-established, but it would be difficult to keep changing weights. Notwithstanding this, Calzaghe may question why he needs to continue when he has achieved so much yet still receives criticism as well as acclaim. He might not care for the money or the titles, and retire as one of Britain’s best boxers.
Comments are closed.