By Manuel Perez: This Saturday night, former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Jermain Taylor (27-1-1, 17 KOs) attempts to regain his world titles against unbeaten champion Kelly Pavlik (32-0, 29 KOs) at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. For many people, they seem to be backing the 25 year-old Pavlik to once again stop Taylor in a similar fashion as last time. I don’t agree with them, however. I’ve re-watched the fight several times in the past week, and after viewing it a second and third times, I now see that Taylor was well on his way to winning the fight, even without the near knockout of Pavlik in the 2nd round.

Taylor, when he as choosing to use his jab and box, looked very impressive at times in their previous on September 29th. Unfortunately for Taylor, he seemed to get caught up in the moment and foolishly attempted to trade shots with Pavlik, leading to Taylor running out of gas by the 2nd round. The mistakes for Taylor are rather obvious. He put too much energy into trying to stop Pavlik after having knocked him down in the 2nd round, and rather than picking his shots carefully, Taylor punched himself out.

Beyond this, Taylor, who has an outstanding jab and superb boxing skills, failed to utilize these tools against Pavlik. Taylor didn’t need to fight in the brawling manner, for he has, unlike Pavlik, the option of boxing or slugging with his opponents, due to his immense talent. What Taylor did, however, was to make a mistake of trying to slug with a slugger. Whether that was his plan going into the fight or something that he fell into because of the excitement of the moment, it was a mistake.

By the 4th round, Taylor needed to make adjustments, focusing on trying to stay away from Pavlik, for he was still badly tired from having used up so much energy while trying to knock Pavlik out in the 2nd. Taylor, however, made zero adjustments, as he continued to trade punches with Pavlik. Despite all this, Taylor was still beating Pavlik at his own game up until the 6th round, when Pavlik landed a number of huge right hands.

This Saturday, however, I see Taylor staying on the outside, using his jab and avoiding Pavlik’s pressure. Pavlik, of course, will continue to come after Taylor, trying to cut off the ring, but he will have little luck. Pavlik is mostly good when his opponent stands directly in front of him, like Edison Miranda and Jose Luis Zertuche did in their fights with Pavlik.

However, if an opponent gives Pavlik any kind of movement, he’s much less effective as a fighter. For that reason, I see Taylor keeping Pavlik reaching, trying to catch up to him, but getting nailed with fast jabs for all his efforts. I don’t see this fight as being close at all. Taylor, when he’s boxing like he knows how, is at another level than Pavlik.