By Dan Ambrose: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has his sights set on a big money rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr. if he can get past middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin on September 16. That’s going to be hard task for the 27-year-old Canelo to add Golovkin to his win column, as he’s expected to lose that fight. But if Canelo does beat Golovkin, then he’s hoping to get a rematch with Mayweather. Canelo is starting to look a little greedy. He’s finally facing Golovkin after seemingly avoiding the fight for 2 years, and now he wants the Mayweather rematch. Canelo needs to be happy that he’s fighting Golovkin.
Canelo lost to Mayweather four years ago by a 12 round majority decision by the scores 116-112, 114-114 and 117-111. The most meaningful score of the three was the 117-111 score in this writer’s view. Canelo was controlled by Mayweather in what appeared to be a 9 rounds to 3 score. Canelo was too slow and limited for Mayweather.
”If the opportunity [to fight Mayweather] arose yes I would love to take that thorn that I have,” he told Omnisport. “And I can tell you it would be much different than it was years ago.”
All we have to go by in predicting an outcome for a Mayweather-Canelo rematch is Canelo’s fight last year against Amir Khan. Canelo was getting out-boxed by Khan in the first 5 rounds. In the 6th, Canelo caught Khan with a hard right hand thrown over a lazy jab that knocked the British fighter out. At the time, Khan appeared to be ahead in the fight 5 rounds to 1.
Considering that Mayweather has a better chin than Khan, and he’s not in the habit of throwing slow jabs, Canelo might end up being out-boxed again by Mayweather. I don’t think the outcome would be any different than the first fight.
There would be significant hurdles to overcome before a second fight between Canelo and Mayweather could be put together. Canelo would have to agree to come down in weight before Mayweather agreed to fight him. You’re probably not going to get Mayweather to agree to move up to 160 to fight Canelo, who in turn would likely rehydrate into the 180s. That’s too much weight for Mayweather to be fighting at. Mayweather started his career out at super featherweight, and his power didn’t carry up with him when he did eventually move up to 147 and 154. It would be like asking Canelo to move up to cruiserweight to take on a top fighter like Oleksandr Usyk. Canelo would be out of his league against a big cruiserweight like Usyk. Mayweather is not going to be able to fight Canelo unless he drops some weight to get back down to 154.
“I’m a fighter with much more experience and more confidence in the ring [now], I have learned a lot since then,” said Canelo commenting on his fight with Mayweather. “Last time I think it was the [lack of] experience that might have won me over, but the fight would be very different this time around.”
Canelo’s experience since the Mayweather fight boils down to fighting these guys:
– Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
– Liam Smith
– Amir Khan
– James Kirkland
– Miguel Cotto
– Alfredo Angulo
– Erislandy Lara
Of that bunch, Lara and Cotto were without question the only true talents. You can’t say a whole heck of a lot about Canelo’s fights with Liam Smith, Khan, Angulo, Chavez Jr. and Kirkland. Those were not world class fighters. Canelo’s experience against really good fighters since the Mayweather fight is Lara and Cotto. With Cotto, he might not be even the second best fighter at 154. There are some good talents in the junior middleweight division that would be pure trouble for a small and old guy like the 5’7” Cotto. If you take Cotto out of the equation due to his advanced age and small size, the only GOOD fighter that Canelo has fought since his loss to Mayweather was Erislandy Lara, who many in the boxing world think should have been given a win over Canelo. Boxing News 24 scored he Canelo-Lara fight for Lara by an 8 rounds to 4 score. It was a surprise when the judges’ scores were announced giving Canelo the win. It was more a controversial outcome than last Saturday’s fight between Manny Pacquiao and Jeff Horn.
In the Mayweather fight, Canelo was looking to land left hand counters all night, and he was having no luck in doing so. With Mayweather choosing to jab instead of throwing power shots, Canelo had nothing to counter with his left hook. The fight turned out to be a really bad fight for the redheaded star, as he was shown to be a one-trick pony by Mayweather. Canelo has won every fight since his defeat to Mayweather, and some think he’s improved immensely. We don’t know for sure because Canelo’s only difficult opponent since then Mayweather fight was Erislandy Lara, who came limited Canelo to just 31 head shots in their entire fight in 2014. Canelo was given a 12 round decision win that shocked many boxing fans, as they felt that Lara had won.
Mayweather, 40, is returning to boxing from a 2-year retirement to take on UFC fighter Conor McGregor on August 26. That’s a fight that is viewed as a win in the bank already for Mayweather. McGregor isn’t a serious threat to beating Mayweather. Canelo can count on Mayweather winning that fight against McGregor with flying colors. Now is the time for Canelo to make it known to the boxing world that he wants to fight Mayweather after he’s done with Conor.
If Canelo can get the fans primed for round 2 of a fight between him and Mayweather, then there could be enough interest and pressure from the boxing public for a second fight between these two stars to take place. Apart from that, I think Mayweather will disappear back into retirement after collecting his 9-figure payday for the McGregor fight.
With Mayweather only wanting to make over $100 million per fight, it’s hard to consider a fight between him and Canelo being a real possibility. A rematch between Canelo and Mayweather isn’t going to bring in over 4 million PPV buys. That’s not realistic. Canelo isn’t a crossover star in boxing as of yet. Assuming that Mayweather’s fight with McGregor turns out to be a mismatch that upsets the boxing and MMA fans in huge numbers, it would be bad news for Canelo to get in the ring with Mayweather in his next fight. Instead of a fight between the two generating huge PPV numbers, it could turn out to be another Mayweather vs. Andre Berto type fight, which drew only 400,000 buys.
That was the fight that Mayweather made after his lackluster fight against Manny Pacquiao in 2015. It appeared that there was a huge backlash from the boxing fans angry at feeling ripped off from the high prices and lack of quality action in the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. Those fans stayed away from purchasing Mayweather’s dull fight with Berto. Canelo would be making a mistake of trying to get Mayweather into the ring with him following the McGregor fight. The only way it makes sense for Canelo to fight Mayweather after that fight is if it’s an action-packed contest with a thrilling outcome. I’m not expecting that to happen. The more likely result of the Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight is a lot of angry boxing fans upset at having wasted their money on a boring mismatch.
Canelo is very cocky when it comes to his fight with Golovkin. He thinks without a doubt that he’s going to beat the 35-year-old Golovkin, and knock him out. Canelo is not a knockout puncher at 160. He was a knockout guy at 154 when matched against certain fighters that weren’t particularly talented. But Canelo never knocked out any of the good junior middleweights.
“I’m going to win, for sure,” said Canelo about his fight with GGG. “It is very difficult that this fight can make it the end and go to a decision, without a doubt it is going to end by knockout.”