By Eric Baldwin: WBO junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) got a second opinion on his fractured right thumb that he suffered in his recent win over Liam Smith on September 17. The doctor reportedly confirmed that the 26-year-old Canelo has a fractured right thumb, according to Lance Pugmire.
The injury will keep the 26-year-old Canelo out of the ring until early 2017. This is bad news for Canelo, boxing fans, and for his promoters at Golden Boy. If it was just a bruise, then Canelo could have possibly squeezed in another payday in December.
Canelo might take a fight in early 2017 before fighting on Cinco de Mayo in May of the year. There are literally tons of options for Canelo’s next fight. He probably won’t bother melting down to 154 to defend his WBO title, because it would mean that he would need to defend against #1 WBO Demetrius Andrade. Canelo doesn’t seem interested in fighting Andrade.
For Canelo’s next fight, he could face middleweight David Lemieux. That would be a tough fight potentially for Canelo, because Lemieux is a dangerous puncher, and he’s likely to land one of his big left hooks at some point in the fight. Canelo doesn’t have good enough boxing skills to avoid getting hit like Gennady Golovkin did in his win over Lemieux last year in October.
It’s no secret that World Boxing Organization middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders (23-0, 12 KOs) wants to fight Canelo or Gennady “GGG” Golovkin in December. Saunders has called both of them out for December. Saunders has a title defense this month against #11 Artur Akavov. After he beats him, Saunders will be available to fight Canelo or Golovkin.
Canelo and Golden Boy have the money to make a big offer to Saunders to get a title shot against him before Golovkin. They just need to make sure that they get to him before Triple G, because Saunders has pretty much no chance of beating the Kazakhstan fighter if that fight gets made. If Canelo can win the WBO 160lb title off of Saunders, then he and Golden Boy can potentially use the WBO title as a reason for a bigger split of the revenue for a fight against Golovkin.
Right now, it would hard for Golden Boy to justify that Canelo should get a 90-10 or 95-5 split of the revenue against Golovkin, because Canelo doesn’t hold a title at middleweight. Golovkin holds three of the four major titles. The only belt not in Golovkin’s possession is the WBO title, That’s why it’s important for Canelo and Golden Boy to get to the WBO belt before Golovkin does. At least if they win that belt, they can say to Golovkin, ‘See, we have the WBO middleweight belt. Here’s the 90-10 split. Take it or leave it. If you don’t want the fight under those terms, then eventually you will one of these in the future.’
The 26-year-old Canelo can then wait Golovkin out until he’s old, and at the end of the line. Golden Boy could then offer the same lopsided split of the revenue, or perhaps even more lopsided in Canelo’s favor. The downside is the fight might not be worth as much money by then, especially if Golovkin gets beaten by someone. But if you factor it in, Golden Boy is still better off waiting for Golovkin to get old before giving him the fight now for a higher percentage cut. Even if the fight isn’t big a deal in the future, Canelo will be better off because he’ll be able to justify getting the lopsided split of the revenue.
“Told Canelo had second opinion on hand from an LA doctor and it confirmed findings of first doctor. Fighting in early ’17 still an option,” said Pugmire on his social media site.