By Scott Gilfoid: #4 WBO Paul Smith (35-4, 20 KOs) sees WBO super middleweight champion Arthur Abraham (41-4, 28 KOs) as an old lion who is ready to be picked off by him in their rematch this Saturday night on February 21st at the O2 World Arena, Kreuzberg, Berlin, Germany.
Smith, who is no spring chicken either at 32, thinks Abraham is starting to show his age recently in his fights, and he believes he’s just the one to take advantage of it.
While Smith maybe in the minority in thinking he beat Abraham in their previous, he’s still convinced that he won the last September despite the fact that Abraham landed the harder blows by far and he landed pretty much the same amount. It’s good that Smith thinks he won, I guess, but it’s obviously not going to help him in the rematch because he needs to raise his game considerably. I don’t think that’s possible because Smith’s biggest problem is his lack of power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnZBPqW15IU
At 32, Smith isn’t going to find any power anywhere at his age, so he’s kind of stuck with what he has. Unless Abraham ages overnight since their first fight, we’ll likely see Abraham beat Smith yet again, and possibly by a knockout this time.
“I think he’s old and showing his age and I believe I’ve learnt a hell of a lot from the last fight,” Smith said via Skysports.com. “I know I can beat him. I know I’ve got everything I need in the tank to beat him. I’m in shape and I’m more than ready.”
Other than Abraham’s work rate not being all that great since he moved up to 168, I don’t see any deterioration at all in his game. He’s still essentially the same fighter that was schooled in the Super Six tournament by the likes of Andre Dirrell and Andre Ward. The power is still there, and so is his low work rate.
I don’t think Abraham has aged any, at least not enough for a fighter like Smith to beat him. I mean, I don’t rate Smith as being a 1st tier contender. I see him as 2nd tier all the way, but it is interesting how the World Boxing Organization has given Smith a high ranking off of his wins over this bunch: David Sarabia (7-3-2), Jamie Ambler (10-52-2), Tony Dodson (29-7-1) and Tommy Tolan (4-12-1). They have really nice records, don’t they? These are the fighters that Smith has beaten since he was whipped by George Groves by a 2nd round knockout in 2011, and presumably these are the guys that the WBO factored into their decision making to give Smith a #4 ranking by their organization.
Based off those wins, I personally couldn’t rank Smith no higher than #100 in the world. Those are clearly 2nd and 3rd tier fighters that Smith beat. You’d like to see fighters get ranked off of solid wins, not wins over fluff opposition.
Smith had this prediction about what boxing fans will be seeing this Saturday night: “A new British world champion – tune in to watch that, tune in to support; tune in to see it happen.”
As much as I’d like to pick the underdog in this fight and go with Smith as the winner, I just don’t see it happening. He’s too slow, too weak and much too limited to pick up a victory over a puncher like Abraham. I don’t see Abraham as being anything more than a paper champion in the 168 pound division, but I do see him as clearly better than Smith by a mile.
The only chance Smith will have to throw his punches is when Abraham takes rest breaks in between landing his heavy flurries. Smith’s lack of punching power won’t get the job done though and I see him losing pretty much every round until he gets knocked out.
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