By Chris Williams: It’s looking already like Manny Pacquiao is on his way to a big upset loss to Antonio Margarito next month in their mega fight on November 13th in Texas. Pacquiao, 31, is having a bad training camp, looking tired, playing basketball, wasting time singing and missing out on runs. Margarito is training like he used to when he was wiping everybody out. Pacquiao will have a big size disadvantage in this bout and it’s not too far-fetched that he’s going to lose and lose badly to Margarito.

So what happens if Pacquiao gets really beaten bad by Margarito? I know Pacquiao would personally like to fight a rematch, but he’s not the one that calls the shots. It’s his promoter Bob Arum who would be directing his next move. I’d like to think that Arum would put Pacquiao back in with Margarito for a rematch so that Manny could avenge the defeat and put his loss behind him. However, I don’t know that Arum would want to risk getting Pacquiao beaten up again.

My guess is Arum would then have Pacquiao avoid Margarito, much in the same way that Pacquiao has been kept away from Juan Manuel Marquez after their 2nd fight where Pacquiao won a controversial 12 round decision. Instead of putting Pacquiao back in with Margarito, I think Arum have Pacquiao bypass Margarito and go for an ultra soft target like Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. for Pacquiao to beat up and get his confidence back. Miguel Cotto is another option.

However, I think Arum won’t want to put Pacquiao in with Cotto next if Pacquiao gets beaten badly by Margarito. Cotto is fighting a lot better and using his jab more than he ever did. I don’t think Arum would want to risk having Pacquiao jabbed silly and beaten once again. Another loss and that would be the end of the Pacquia gravy train.