By Jim Calfa: Kelly Pavlik believes Canelo Alvarez will have too much talent for Jermell Charlo for their fight on September 30th.
The former middleweight champion Pavlik sees the undisputed super middleweight champion dominating the smaller Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs), beating him by a twelve round unanimous decision by a 117-111 or 116-112 score.
Pavlik thinks Jermell’s conditioning will enable him to win some of the later rounds to make it look respectable, but he won’t beat Canelo.
Moving up two weight classes is too much of a jump up in class for Jermell, and he’ll be overmatched by Canelo, who has fought against much bigger guys during his career.
Pavlik notes that Jermell has had problems against the fighters he’s been going up against at 154, and now he’s moving up to 168 to face one of the best in the division.
Canelo-Charlo will be shown on Showtime PPV at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The co-feature bout is junior middleweight contender Jesus Ramos vs. Erickson Lubin.
Canelo “too much” for Jermell
“I think so. It’s not going to make a difference. I seen where both Charlos where the fans were saying, ‘He won’t fight the Charlos,’ and now that he’s getting ready to fight one of them, ‘Oh, he’s a weight bully.’ I called that,” said Kelly Pavlik to MillCity Boxing about Canelo Alvarez being criticized for choosing 154-lb fighter Jermell Charlo to fight next.
Unfortunately for Canelo, he won’t receive full credit for beating Jermell Charlo from boxing fans because he has been selected from the 154-lb division.
If Canelo wanted a smaller guy as his opponent for September 30th, he should have selected a middleweight. One of these guys would have been good:
- Janibek Alimkhanuly
- Erislandy Lara
- Carlos Adames
“I think Canelo is too much for them [the Charlo brothers]. Jermell has shown problems in fights that really weren’t elite-level guys. Can he steal a fight? Yeah. Can he crack? Absolutely,” Pavlik continued.
“I see Canelo winning that fight unless he can get Canelo in the later rounds and his [Jermell] conditioning takes over because we have seen Canelo fade in the later rounds, but I think that really caught up to Canelo when he fought at light heavyweight against Bivol.”
Even if Jermell does win the later rounds, he’ll likely be so far down in the scorecards that he won’t be able to climb back into the fight to win a decision against Canelo.
Jermell won’t knock out Canelo, that’s for sure, which means has a slim chance of winning. If you’re Charlo’s coach, you’re impressing upon him the need to go all out in the first six rounds so that he can win some of them and then take over the fight when Canelo gasses down the stretch.
“I think that one will go the distance. I think Canelo will slow him down with body shots and, for the most part, will win that fight by decision,” said Pavlik. “I see Charlo winning some of the later rounds.
“He’ll keep it somewhat close. Not by a wide margin, but 117-111, something like that. I think Jermall [would do better against Canelo] due to natural size,” said Pavlik.
There’s a possibility that Jermall Charlo could be Canelo’s opponent for next May if he gets his head together and looks good in his comeback fight later this year. Right now, you have to say it’s a longshot for Jermall to get the fight with Canelo.
Alvarez accustomed to fighting bigger guys
“Canelo is used to being hit by 175-lb guys. Not only that but in sparring,” said Pavlik. “When you’re talking about sparring some of the light heavyweights in training, some of them might be walking around at 185-190. He’s used to that, and that is an advantage that Canelo has.”
It’s important that Canelo not fade early like did in his last three fights because Jermell will take it to him and dominate him. It would be a bad look if Canelo gets beat up by Jermell in the championship rounds and squeaks by.
That would affirm in the eyes of the boxing public that Caneelo is on the downside of his career and needs to be kept away from the killers at 168, David Benavidez, David Morreell Jr., and Demetrius Andrade.
“Canelo fought GGG and Danny Jacobs, who, at the time, was the other top guy at middleweight,” said Pavlik. “He did what he had to do. He [Canelo] went to 168 and did what he had to do at 168.
“Then he went to 175 and fought the toughest guy. We knew how dangerous that was for Canelo to go up and fight a monster like Bivol.
“The guy [Canelo] has by far the best resume in boxing. Canelo has had one of the best careers.
Canelo needs to stay away from Benavidez
“Benavidez is a bad dude. He can fight. He’s young; he’s hungry; he’s strong, and he’s out there to get his dues. If Benavidez has the opportunity to fight Canelo, he’s not only going to beat Canelo, but he’s going to make a statement,” said Pavlik.
There’s no need for Pavlik to give Canelo advice about staying away from Pavlik because he’s doing a nice job of doing that on his own. With Benavidez looking increasingly more drained from making weight for the 168-lb division, he will be forced to move up to 175 soon, perhaps next year.
“Does Canelo do that right now? No, he don’t. I think the Charlo fight is a good one because it can possibly shut people up for a little bit,” said Pavlik. “Maybe go after the brother after this fight or go after Andrade.
“If he does beat a guy like Andrade, he’s a weight bully. I think there are some other fights out there [for Canelo]. If I was him, I’d stay away from Benavidez.
“Part of me wants to see it, being a Benavidez fan. I want Benavidez to get that opportunity and get that payday. But on the other hand, I wouldn’t do it,” said Pavlik.
