By Sean Jones: Canelo Alvarez has a lot to prove tonight in his fight against John Ryder in a battle that will give fans a good indication of whether the fabulously rich Mexican superstar should retire. The fight will be live on DAZN PPV in the US.
Ryder could put Canelo out of his misery on Saturday and send him packing into retirement with his massive $200 million+ fortune.
In 2022, Canelo (58-2-2, 39 KOs) looked like he didn’t have it anymore, losing to Dmitry Bivol and coming close to getting beaten by Gennadiy Golovkin, who looked like he was just happy to be getting his long-awaited final payday for their trilogy.
If Golovkin had shown any kind of ambition to try and win, Canelo would have lost both of his fights in 2022, and that’s troubling because it shows clearly that he’s no longer the fighter he was in 2021 and earlier.
Canelo vs. Ryder – What are their key strengths?
Ryder’s strengths:
A. Stamina
B. High output
C. Strong chin
D. Good body puncher
With Ryder’stamina and punch output, he can wear Canelo out quickly on Saturday night and have him fighting on fumes from round three on, as we saw in his fight with Dmitry Bivol.
Ryder’s major flaws are his slow hand speed, lack of size, below-average power, and limited experience.
Canelo’s strengths:
A. Hand speed
B. Power
C. Defense
D. Experience
E. Chin
F. Ring IQ
“I’m more willing than others to call John Ryder a credible opponent, but this is going to be the tallest of tasks for Ryder,” said Chris Mannix to DAZN’s Jabs. “I think Canelo coming into his hometown fight in Mexico in more than ten years, I think he’s going to have a lot of energy, and I think his [surgically repaired left] hand is going to hold up just fine.
“A guy like John Ryder, who was [controversially] stopped in the seventh round by Nick Blackwell; I think he’s going to have a hard time keeping up with the speed and accuracy of Canelo Alvarez. Take Canelo by mid-round stoppage.
“Ninth round, that’s the round I’m picking,” said Sergio Mora. “I think Canelo is not only going to want to test that hand out, but impress the crowd. Just like that movie, ‘Gladiator,’ with Russell Crowe. You just don’t go in there for the kill. You got to worry about the gladiator arena and the fans to give them what they want.
How can Ryder defeat Canelo?
The way that Ryder can beat Canelo is as follows:
A.Pressure
B.Fast pace
C.Don’t allow rest breaks
D.High punch output
E.Sustained combinations
F.Work the body
Ryder shouldn’t spend too much time head-hunting because Canelo will move his head in an imitation Mayweather style, and play to the crowd.
It’s hard to hit Canelo with headshots unless a bombards him with a rapid-fire flurry like we saw witnessed with Dmitry Bivol in the fifth round.
Bivol couldn’t miss with his punches to the head and had Canelo looking like a played-out sparring partner along the ropes. Canelo was completely over-matched in that fight and baffled by the in & out style that Bivol was using. He literally didn’t know if he was coming or going, and he was helpless.
We’ve seen Canelo hurt to the body in his first fight against Golovkin in 2017. After Canelo got hurt, he looked to the referee and pointed to his back to make him think he’d been hit by an illegal shot from GGG.
In reality, Canelo wanted to save to keep Golovkin from finishing him with further body shots. Sure enough, playing to the referee for sympathy worked, as he warned Golovkin, which caused him to stop throwing to the body for fear of being penalized or disqualified.
In another fight where Canelo was hurt by a body shot was his match against Austin Trout in 2013. After Canelo was hurt, he went to the ropes and spent the entire second half of the contest fighting defensively, guarding his midsection for fear of getting hit again by Trout.
“It’s going to be 50,000 screaming Mexicans. I think he’s going to want to extend the show. Tenth-round knockout, Canelo Alvarez,” said Mora.
“Ultimately, Canelo is going to walk him down and study him,” said Dan Hardy. “He’s going to cover everything he throws and very rarely open up. The thing that Canelo does so well is attack the arms and shoulders. It’s something that so few boxers do these days.
“You see Canelo working out on the Aqua back, which gives you really good recoil on the punches, and he is blasting that thing. It teaches you when the body mechanics are correct because you get really strong recoil from the bag.
“Because of the way he works with those punches, you know his full kinetic chain for the punch is solid. So he’s able to blast people’s arms and shoulders without worrying too much about it hurting him,” Hardy said.
Does Canelo’s experience give him an advantage?
Canelo has eighteen years of experience in the pro ranks and over 60 fights, which could give him an advantage over Ryder. At the same time, when a fighter has been around that many years, it can work against them.
Although Canelo is known for having excellent defensive skills, and a rock-iron chin, he’s still taken a lot of heavy shots during his career, especially in his first two fights against Gennadiy Golovkin.
In Canelo’s last two fights against Dmitry Bivol and Golovkin in 2022, he showed the classic signs of being a shot fighter. He blamed his off performances on his left-hand injury, but it looked like a fighter that had seen better days.
“Ultimately, I think he’s going to take the arms and shoulders away from Ryder and get to him and wear him down with a couple of body shots to get to his chin,” said Hardy.
“When it comes to Canelo Alvarez and John Ryder in Mexico, this fight is going to go one way, in my opinion,” said Akin Reyes. “Canelo is going to be fighting with a chip on his shoulders. I’m assuming.
“I know this to be true, but with all this talk about other fighters [Gervonta Davis] being the ‘Face of Boxing,’ other fighters being #1 on the [pound-for-pound] list, he’s going in there to make a vicious statement.
“Credit to John Ryder for earning this shot, and it’s probably going to be tough for a few rounds. But Canelo’s body and vicious head movement and entering and countering heavy shots are going to break John Ryder down. In my opinion, this fight ends around seven or nine,” said Akin.
Prediction:
Ryder will outwork Canelo and get the better of him in the second half of the fight, but he loses a decision due to a slow start. Canelo will be at his best in the first five rounds, build up a lead, and then hang on in the second half of the fight after he fades.
