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Matias vs. Ponce Preview and Prediction

Image: Matias vs. Ponce Preview and Prediction

By Alex Fesl: This Saturday from The Armory in Minneapolis, MN, Subriel Matias 18-1 (18 KOs), will be taking on undefeated Jeremias Ponce 30-0 (20 KOs), for the vacant IBF super lightweight title. This fight will be Ponce’s USA debut against Matias, who has been a co-feature on several Premier Boxing Champions and Top Rank fight cards. Most of Ponce’s fights have taken place in Argentina, with several fights in Germany, Italy, and England, respectively.

This fight looks to be an entertaining and explosive affair. Both fighters are aggressive power punchers and do not shy away from action. Oddsmakers have Matias as the heavy favorite, but the undefeated Ponce is no walkover.

Keys to Victory

Matias: In past fights, Matias has shown to be slightly reckless in his approach. He would come forward with no jab, then dig to the body and look for powerful hooks and uppercuts upstairs. In Matias’ last fight against Ananyan, Matias showed stark improvements in his offense and defense to avenge his lone loss. Matias noticeably had a much tighter defense and seemed much more controlled on the inside with his punch selection.

In this fight, look for Matias to continue his progression. Expect Matias to come forward with steady pressure and a good jab to close the distance. Once on the inside, look for Matias to work the body of Ponce and throw combinations upstairs. Ponce will not be difficult to find as he also comes forward and does not box on the outside.

Ponce: At 5′ 11″, Ponce is considerably tall for a super lightweight, yet Ponce is not known to use his height and reach advantage. Ponce has shown a good jab in previous fights, but they were not jabs utilizing his reach. Moreso, Ponce’s jab was to create openings on the inside. Expect more of this prodding type of jab from Ponce in this fight.

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Additionally, expect Ponce to come forward and try to outwork Matias on the inside. In Matias’ lone loss vs. Ananyan, Matias was outworked on the inside, and Ananyan had a lot of success punching in between Matias’ combinations. Look for Ponce to have a heavy punch output in this match to take advantage of the lulls in the action. Also, look for Ponce to create separation on the inside and throw a chopping right hand. In Ponce’s fight with Lewis Ritson, that chopping right hand gave Ponce the edge on the inside.

What Time is Matias vs. Ponce?

  • Date: Saturday, February 25
  • Main card: 9 p.m. ET / 2 a.m. GMT
  • Main event ring walks (approx): 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. GMT
  • US viewers can watch the fight on Showtime
  • The fight will take place at The Armory in Minneapolis.
  • The main card is set to get underway at 9 p.m. ET / 2 a.m. GMT with the main event ringwalks scheduled for 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. GMT.


This fight should be an entertaining match while it lasts. Both fighters have a fan-friendly style and throw a lot of power punches. I expect the underdog, Ponce, to have his moments and land some good shots in the mix. Yet, I believe Matias will outshine Ponce in this affair as Matias should have a noticeable power advantage.

My final prediction: Matias by late stoppage.

Note: This card also has a very impressive undercard with former WBA welterweight champion Jamal James in action, as well as contenders Kudratillo Abdukakhorov and Elvis Rodriguez, respectively.

Matias vs. Ponce Fight Card

  • Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce; For the vacant IBF world super lightweight title
  • Jamal James vs. Alberto Palmetta; Welterweights
  • Elvis Rodriguez vs. Joseph Adorno; Junior welterweights
  • Kudratillo Abdukakhorov vs. Ve Shawn Owens; Welterweights
  • Jonathan Lopez Marcano vs. Eduardo de Oliveira Guedes Diogo; Bantamweights
  • Derrick Jackson vs. Willie Jones; Welterweights
  • Kel Spencer vs. Margarito Hernandez; Welterweights
  • Breeon Carothers vs. Kevin Schmidt; Lightweights

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