By Michael Malaszczyk: This weekend, Anthony Joshua was handed the second loss of his career by former undisputed cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk. Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, WBO, and IBO world heavyweight titles in the process.
Usyk thoroughly outboxed and outthought Joshua, coming out to an unexpectedly strong start in the early rounds. The middle rounds were more competitive, with Joshua having some spots of success, before Usyk took over again in the championship rounds. Usyk really brought it on in the twelfth, having Joshua wobbled and almost down at the very end of the round.
This loss is a bigger loss for Joshua than his previous loss to Andy Ruiz. Why is that? There were no pre-fight surprises, and there is no clear blueprint to victory for Joshua in a rematch.
As far as pre-fight surprises go, when Joshua lost to Ruiz, there were a number of factors that could be pointed to. Joshua had been training to fight Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, and was bulked up to knock Miller out; this bulking and brawling plan was not good for an opponent with a lower center of gravity like Ruiz. Joshua was fighting in the United States for the first time, after fighting in the U.K. his entire career. There were rumors that Joshua had been knocked out in sparring prior to the bout, so may have been already damaged heading in.
Compare this to the Usyk loss; everything went right for Joshua. He had had a good tuneup, showcasing fight against Kubrat Pulev in December of 2020, had plenty of time to prepare for Usyk, and was fighting at home in England.
As far as blueprints go, while Ruiz did knock Joshua out, two things were clear after the first fight with Ruiz: one, Joshua did have the power to hurt Ruiz, and two, Joshua could keep Ruiz off of him with his jab. Joshua dropped Ruiz in the third round before Ruiz rose up to catch Joshua with a temple shot, dropping Joshua twice. After the third round, Joshua stopped throwing major shots and mostly jabbed; despite being concussed, he made it to the seventh round on this strategy before Ruiz finally broke through again.
So while Ruiz was better than Joshua on that one night, a lot had gone wrong for Joshua prior. It was safe to say that with a full training camp to prepare for Ruiz, Joshua would win. That is what ended up happening, as Joshua beat Ruiz with ease in the rematch using the blueprint he had discovered after the third round; he jabbed and moved, keeping Ruiz on the outside and pitching a near shutout.
No such blueprints exist for Joshua in an Usyk rematch. Many are saying he must brawl to win, but Usyk’s technical brilliance might result in him knocking Joshua out if Joshua tries to brawl. Usyk also took Joshua’s power very well when Joshua did have success.
So while both losses were devastating, after the Ruiz loss, it was at least clear that Joshua had the power to hurt Ruiz and the boxing ability to win rounds with a jab; he was just too damaged from the third round to do it for the remainder of the fight. There’s no clear indication as to what strategy will serve Joshua well in an Usyk rematch; when he boxed Usyk, he was outboxed. His power didn’t seem to greatly affect Usyk. As a matter of fact, it was Joshua who was wobbled by Usyk’s power, so brawling Usyk is a risky strategy.
Look no further than Joshua’s post-fight demeanor after the losses. After the loss to Ruiz, Joshua looked like the happiest man ever to lose a championship boxing match. He was humble and insistent that it was Ruiz’s moment, not his. Perhaps Joshua was happy to let Ruiz have his moment, knowing he had the boxing ability to win the rematch. There was almost a subtle confidence there, as if he knew this loss to Ruiz had been tactical failure more than anything. After the loss to Usyk, Joshua has been much quieter. He seemed flustered after the final bell and, despite remaining humble, is being considerably less congratulatory of Usyk than he was to Ruiz; could it be that he doesn’t have the same confidence in his ability to win a rematch that he did with Ruiz?
Anthony Joshua has been a terrific heavyweight champion. He has always taken the hardest fights available to him. He took the fight with Usyk when a fight with Tyson Fury was looming; it’s hard to imagine Fury or Deontay Wilder taking such a hard fight with the biggest money fight of their career looming. Joshua certainly has the talent to eventually become a three-time world champion, but it’s hard to see a clear path to victory for him in an immediate rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. With Ruiz, the path was there, the only question being “can Joshua keep Ruiz off of him for twelve rounds?” which he could. This lack of a clear way forward for Joshua against Usyk is why this loss is worse.