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Jaime Munguia vs. Gary O’Sullivan – preview & prediction

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By Kenneth Friedman: Underdog Gary ‘Spike’ O’Sullivan (30-3, 21 KOs) is looking forward to facing unbeaten Jaime Munguia (34-0, 27 KOs) tonight so he can become the first to defeat the unbeaten Golden Boy promoted fighter at the Alamodome, in San Antonio, TX.  The fight card will be shown on DAZN.


O’Sullivan does have a chance against Munguia, but not a very good one. The good news is Munguia isn’t as talented as the three fighters that have beaten O’Sullivan in the last. The bad news is that it probably won’t matter.

O’Sullivan will be giving up a lot of size

In looking at the huge size difference between the two during Friday’s weigh-in, it’s hard to take the smaller 5’10” O’Sullivan seriously as a real threat to the taller and bigger 6’0″ Munguia. However, O’Sullivan has punching that might be even better than Munguia, but what he lacks is size, chin and the youth.

With O’Sullivan coming up short in all those areas, he might not be around long enough tonight for him to use his impressive power.

As horrible as Munguia looked in beating Dennis Hogan by a controversial decision last April, you can’t entirely dismiss O’Sullivan’s chances of winning. It’s going to be harder for O’Sullivan out-box Munguia the way that Hogan did, because he’s not as crafty as him.

Munguia vs. O’Sullivan fight break down:

  • Speed: even
  • Power: slight edge to O’Sullivan
  • Experience: O’Sullivan
  • Punch resistance: Munguia
  • Size: Munguia
  • Youth: Munguia
  • Experience: O’Sullivan

Hogan was a pure boxer, who took advantage of his Munguia’s primitive ability. Although Hogan fought well enough to beat Munguia, he fought himself on the receiving end of a hometown decision in Monterrey, Mexico.

Munguia being groomed for Canelo fight

The Munguia vs. O’Sullivan fight should be entertaining for as long as it lasts, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves about the Irish fighter’s chances. He was carefully vetted by Golden Boy to ensure that he doesn’t give their fighter 23-year-old Munguia his first loss. They want to keep Munguia unbeaten long enough to match him against Canelo Alvarez, for the sake of the big money an in house fight between them would bring.

Golden Boy are going to need to hurry up and put Munguia in with Canelo, seeing that he’s looking shaky beyond belief in his fights. They need to make the Canelo-Munguia fight, and then look to pick up the pieces of what’s left of Munguia afterwards to try and rebuild him from the ground up.

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O’Sullivan could set himself up for a BIG payday if he beats Munguia

As long as Munguia isn’t discouraged from a loss, then he should be able to come back. But before he can get to the Canelo fight, Munguia must get passed O’Sullivan, who will be looking to take his head off with every punch tonight. This isn’t quite a last chance situation for the big punching O’Sullivan, but it’s getting close to that.

He’s in an ideal position right now to potentially get a fight against Canelo and set himself up for life if he whips Munguia. Making millions against Canelo would be the equivalent of O’Sullivan hitting the lottery, and it would be coming at the right time for him.

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O’Sullivan wants it to be a WAR against Munguia

“I made it quite easy. I’ve been 154 my last two fights, and I can make 160 quite easily,” said o’Sullivan to Rng Mundial. “My spirit is very good. I genuinely believe if I fought Lemieux, I’d beat him. He landed a good punch that night, and it was a little bit lucky, I believe.

“He throws good left hooks, and it was a little bit lucky,” O’Sullivan said about Lemieux. “If we fight again, I would beat him. I like a guy that brings the fight to me. With a Mexican style myself, I hope he brings the fight for the fans. A war,” said O’Sullivan.

Spike O’Sullivan is slightly kidding himself by saying that he thinks he would beat the hulking super middleweight David Lemieux in a rematch. In looking at their fight in September 2018, Lemieux obliterated O’Sullivan in stopping him in the 1st round. Even though the ending came from Lemieux landing a powerful left hook at the same time O’Sullivan was throwing a right, the outcome was preordained.

O’Sullivan took punishment the entire round, and was reeling from the heavy shots that Lemieux was hitting him with to the head and body. Spike had no choice but to give ground to Lemieux, because he didn’t have the size or the chin to stand up under the shots from Lemieux.

There’s no shame in O’Sullivan giving up real estate to Lemieux, considering that’s what Gennadiy Golovkin did in his fight against the Canadian in 2015. GGG waited until the 8th round to go after Lemieux, and he quickly stopped him. O’Sullivan made the mistake of trying to stand and fight Lemieux at the end of the 1st round, and he was caught by a big shot.

Munguia is there to be hit

In the early rounds, O’Sullivan will likely be trying to tee off on Munguia to get him out of there fast, but it might be a waste of time. Munguia has a superb chin, and his stamina is top rate. O’Sullivan doesn’t have much choice but to go after Munguia, 23, right away tonight, being that he’s not going to tire as the rounds go.

If anyone is going to fade in this fight, it’s going to be O’Sullivan. He faded in his two losses to Billy Joe Saunders and Chris Eubank Jr. after fighting well in the first four rounds.

With former WBO junior middleweight champion Munguiao moving up in weight from 154, he’s likely going to be a little bit more powerful than he’s been in the past. When Munguia fought at junior middleweight, he would rehydrate to the mid-170s. Now that he’s fighting at middleweight, it’s likely that Munguia will be in the low 180s. He’s like another Daniel Jacobs in terms of size, and he’s HUGE for the middleweight division.

Munguia is still young, and he’ll be able to get away with draining down from cruiserweight to compete at middleweight. But for all intents and purposes, Munguia is a small light heavyweight campaigning as a middleweight. In contrast, O’Sullivan is a SMALL junior middleweight, who is fighting out of his weight class in order to get nice paydays as a B-side opponent for popular fighters.

Munguia’s trainer Erik Morales believes in him

“I’m convinced that Jaime Munguia at 160 pounds will be a great fighter,” said Morales. “He has come to this fight after a great training with a lot of strength and speed.

“No doubt it would a good fight and I’m sure that Jaime has the energy and the strength to fight at the highest levels in a style that is pleasing to the fans because he has the talent and the heart. Jaime has grown a lot as a boxer. It’s going to be a big fight and I want to invite everyone to be part of this big night of boxing.”

Golden Boy Promotions has put Munguia in a position to succeed by matching him against a beatable fighter like O’Sullivan, but Morales will need to keep enthusiasm in check. No amount of improvement in Munguia’s is going to help him beat the lions in the middleweight division.

The best thing that Munguia has going for him is his youth, as he’ll still be around long after Canelo, GGG, Jermall Charlo and Demetrius Andrade retire. With them out of the way, Munguia will have a shot at winning a world title, and dominating. Unfortunately, he’ll likely have outgrown the middleweight division many years before he has a shot at doing that.

Prediction

Munguia stops the over-matched O’Sullivan in the 3rd round.

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