By Kenneth Friedman: Saul Canelo Alvarez looked EMBARRASSINGLY small standing next to Sergey Kovalev on the stage during Wednesday’s final news conference before Saturday’s fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Canelo (52-1-2, 35 KOs) is the favorite in the fight with the odds-makers, but there’s a good chance that Kovalev will win this fight just based on huge size advantage.
When Kovalev was standing next to Canelo, it was like a boxer posing with his manager. Canelo didn’t look like he belonged on the same stage with Kovalev.
(Photo Credit: Tom Hogan-HoganPhotos/Golden Boy)
Canelo looks stocky like always, and resembles a small tank. That might not be enough for him to overcome the taller, stronger Kovalev in this fight. For a lot of boxing fans, they’re assuming that Canelo will win based on how good he’s looking in recent fights. Fans may be underestimating the taller fighter Kovalev. Size does matter in sports, especially in boxing.
This fight could come down to what Kovalev has left in the tank. If this is the Kovalev from 2014, Canelo has no chance of winning, and will get stomped quickly. Kovalev was knocking everybody out five years ago, and no could stay in there with him long enough to get to his chin. If this is the Kovalev that lost twice to Andre Ward, and was beaten by Eleider Alvarez, Canelo might win. It still won’t be easy because he’s so much smaller than Kovalev. In Kovalev’s last against Anthony Yarde, he almost got stopped in the 8th. The referee probably should have stopped the fight.
Canelo must be first to beat Kovalev
“He has to be very strategic and be first,” said Hopkins to Fighthype. “To be first in that fight is important. Canelo must be first. He always has to have Sergey looking for his rhythm and his big punch. If he [Canelo] can avoid that early and take it to the middle rounds to continue to press, and do what he’s been doing the last four or five fights. He has to use his good offense as his good defense.
“That’s what I feel people don’t give Canelo credit enough for his good defense. Canelo doesn’t sacrifice his physical being to prove a point. But going into the line of fire, there’s a chance you can feel some heat. That’s always a possibility when you’re fighting someone on the level of Sergey Kovalev. His skills, and the things that he’s prepared for. If you make a mistake, not even a serious mistake, you can get crushed.
“Heart, determination and experience to find a way to get the knockout late,” said Hopkins when asked about Kovalev’s last fight against Anthony Yarde. “You can’t compare Yarde to Canelo. So it won’t be that type of fight, because they are two different fights that are on the same level of experience giving the edge to Sergey based on championship fights, and being in that weight class all his career,” said Hopkins
It’s not surprising that Hopkins is saying that Canelo must be first with his shots, because that’s the way B-Hop fought throughout his career. He liked to get his shots off first, and helped him win a lot of fights. It might be a little harder for Canelo because he’s so short.
Hopkins says Canelo’s body attack won’t be a factor
“If he [Kovalev] lands that with anybody, he’s going to get their attention,” said Hopkins. It just comes with the danger of being in with a guy like that. This fight is very exciting and dangerous. It’s more dangerous for Canelo than it is for Sergey Kovalev. I think it could have been if everybody wasn’t telling it first,” said Hopkins when asked if Canelo’s body punching will be a factor in the fight. It’s not really a game plan, because they’ve been saying it for a while. ‘Body, body, body, body.’ If you tell somebody that you’re going to rob their bank tomorrow, they’re going to be ready for you.
“If it was an opportunity where a body can be exploited, all that went out the window because you told, and questions were asked about it. I think the skills more than the body shots is something we’re going to look for. But I think the skills are going to override everything that people predicted. Nobody predicted the skill level with one guy [Canelo] I feel is getting better, and the other guy has been the same, and is damn good at the same.
“So do you like the guy that is getting better with every fight or do you like the guy that’s not getting better, but is actually who he is and is going to be. Give me the guy that is learning all the time, and has got his feet wet and is still learning, which can be scary if I was his opponent. He’s getting better, and the other guy is the same,” said Hopkins.
B-Hop is right about Kovalev having been given too many warnings about Canelo’s body attack for it to be effective in this fight. It’s never been easy Kovalev to the body.
Kovalev must stay on the outside to win
“The logic tells you in boxing that you’re fighting a taller guy with a longer reach, you don’t want to be outside that long reach,” said Hopkins. “You want to be inside where you can make him uncomfortable. A taller guy with longer arms needs distance. He needs to be physically two to three feet away from him so he can pick you off like a sniper.
“Once you get close to them, they can’t get the radar on you. They need distance, and if you take that distance away, it becomes a different fight that he needs to fight. There’s chances that he’s taking as we get closer to November 2nd. I think this time it’s going to be more difficult going up against a guy Canelo’s level.
“I think his [Kovalev] key to victory is to be three feet away, using his reach, and making it very difficult for the shorter guy to work his way in. And if he does get in, he pays such a price, round by round by round that physically he has nothing left later in the rounds to be able to take over for that opportunity,” said Hopkins.
It’s obvious that Kovalev has to stay on the outside to win, because he doesn’t possess the inside game to beat Canelo in close. Someone that would give Canelo all he could handle on the inside is IBF/WBC light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev. However, Canelo didn’t choose Beterbiev as an opponent for obvious reasons.
Canelo has to pay the price to get inside
“How much price is Canelo willing to take to get through the first line of defense, and that’s the jab,” said Hopkins. “If he gets passed the jab early, some of you’re not going to be upset, but I’ll say TKO more than anything. If anyone has a chance of knocking somebody out, it’s Sergey, because he’s a light heavyweight and he’s been there and he’s comfortable.
“I think he’s the stronger puncher. But I think the quicker, the sharper, the IQ that you think, the way that he responds when he thinks, that’s hand’s down Canelo. I think that’s going to be the key to the success of this fight,” said Hopkins.
This fight is going to be a lot harder than Hopkins thinks it will for Canelo to get inside on Kovalev. He’s going to need to walk through a lot of Sergey’s heavy shots to get in punching range.
Canelo didn’t land a lot of body shots in his fights against Gennadiy Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs. In the rematch with GGG, Canelo landed a few good body shots, but not a massive amount. You can argue that Canelo’s reputation of being a great body puncher isn’t accurate. He’s not willing to commit to the body because he doesn’t like to get hit.
