On The Eve of Golovkin vs. Alvarez 2 Looking Forward to the Next Controversy

By Boxing News - 09/14/2018 - Comments

Image: On The Eve of Golovkin vs. Alvarez 2 Looking Forward to the Next Controversy

By Tyler Chrestman: On the eve of what is arguably the biggest fight of the year, the rematch of Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin, I decided that I would rewatch the first fight for the first time. I remember watching the fight live and scoring it decisively for Golovkin in real time. I remember one year ago, upon hearing the scorecards read, that I believed that I was witnessing something that would be hailed a universally acknowledged controversy. Something akin to Whitaker vs. Chavez, or more recently Pacquiao vs. Horn, but instead the boxing blogs and websites raged with debate about who had really won the fight. I was perplexed.

I did not rewatch the fight because it had seemed so straightforward to me, it did not appear to warrant it, and admittedly I was sour because the scorecards (or at least the terrible scorecard of Adalaide Byrd) appeared to be a farce. I would instead wait for the inevitable rematch and see it settled in the ring rather than in the comment section of videos uploaded on Youtube by HBO.

Then the controversy of “Mexican Meat” surface. The rematch seemed in jeopardy, and the boxing world descended into its version of chaos, endless debate about a controversial fight made more controversial by perceived corruption and cheating. When eventually the fight got rescheduled and the fighters moved into their respective training camps, I vowed to watch the first fight again, but persisted in dragging my feet until the last moment.

Without doing a round-by-round, the summary of the first fight is relatively easy. Canelo displayed flashes of brilliance in defense and counter punching, particularly in the early and late rounds, but took large amounts of time off in the middle. More noticeably rounds 7 and 8 where he moved backwards the entire time and landed few shots of his own. Even moments where he shined, like the first minute of round 10, were then followed by 2 minutes where his activity level dropped to nothing. Golovkin played the aggressor as we all expected he would. He landed hard shots at a steady rate. His work rate was greater and he out landed Canelo in almost every round. Watching the fight the second time, if I stretched, if I extended my charity to Canelo at the maximum level possible before entertaining absurdity, I could score it a draw. I gave Canelo rounds 1, 2, 11, and 12. There are arguments to be made about rounds 10, 6, and 3. The problem with those rounds for Canelo is the age old question, does a good one minute of the round by one fighter beat a steady two minutes of work from the other? Were Canelo’s puncher so much cleaner and so effective that he deserved round 10, when for the last two minutes he held and did not land a single meaningful shot? Not in my opinion.

Upon the second watching of the fight, I could at least understand the controversy, even if I did not necessarily agree with it. I thought Golovkin deserved to win the first fight. He out-landed, out-worked, and supplied the more effective shots. He commanded the ring and Canelo, while he did display moments of superior punching and effective boxing, did not do enough to deserve the victory.

But that is all in the past. Tomorrow night, is the future, and the future is exciting. The controversy surrounding the scoring and Canelo’s unfortunate dietary choices, has only heightened

the anticipation. The debate around who gets their hand raised at the end of Saturday night is the only thing on the minds of boxing fans today. So what is the path to victory?

Golovkin made a mistake in the last fight of not going to the body on Canelo. Canelo slowed down in the middle rounds, but if Golovkin had gone downstairs early, Canelo may not have had the energy to rally late in the fight and make it competitive. Expect to see him pay Canelo less respect early and work in close to throw hard shots towards the body.

Canelo for his part is going to anticipate this and is going to move and counter as he did in the last fight. When he engaged with Golovkin he was able to surprise many and hold his own. His head movement never allowed Golovkin to land with his incredible power and provided Canelo ample opportunity to counter with some punches with a surprising amount of pop. His speed also troubled Golovkin early. His biggest problem was that he did not throw enough punches. Golovkin out threw Canelo by close to 200 hundred punches, 40% more in fact than Canelo threw. Canelo is going to have to throw more because his slight edge in connect percentage is not going to win him this fight on the cards. Judges are supposed to be objective, but I imagine no one is going to want to be the next Byrd, so Canelo will have no friends looking to give him anything this time around. If he wants to win, he will need to work more.

Canelo’s body looks different in this fight (obvious dietary changes have taken place during the past year.) He appears slimmer, which will have its benefits and drawbacks. It is possible this leaner body will mean that when Golovkin connects he does more damage. It’s possible this lean torso is provide a more attractive target for Golovkin’s inevitable concentration on the body attack. On the plus side for Canelo however, he has clearly been working on his conditioning. It seemed in the last fight that Canelo got winded and only fought in short bursts. It might be due to the fact he was carrying all that extra muscle he was unaccustomed to. This leaner look might provide him the boost to his stamina which could improve his counter punching and work rate in the middle rounds. If that is the case, Golovkin could be in for a much harder fight.

I foresee this being a similar fight to the first. The biggest unknown will be how Canelo’s weight loss affects his performance. The professionals all have their picks locked in. For my part, I see this fight going very similar to the first. Golovkin will land the better shots, and his increased work rate in this fight will trouble Canelo. There will be more opportunities for Canelo to counter, but will it be enough? He never displayed the power to hurt Golovkin, and if Triple G shows him less respect because of it, Canelo will play more defensive shell and less the Mayweather counter puncher. I think we have another close fight, but Golovkin (provided there are no scandals on the scorecards) will deserve a SD, and launch us into round two of the controversial debate on the subjective nature of scoring a boxing match. Regardless of the outcome, I am confident fans will win.