By Scott Gilfoid: George Groves sees Callum Smith as a tall, slow fighter that he’s going to quickly figure out and knockout this Friday, September 28 in their World Boxing Super Series super middleweight final at the King Abdullah Sports City, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Groves will be looking to keep the fight on the outside against Smith, because he doesn’t have the inside game to win this fight. This fight could be over with in the first 3 to 4 rounds. If Smith (24-0, 17 KOs) isn’t able to hurt Groves with anything big by that point in the fight, it could be bad for the Liverpool native. Groves will chop Smith down quickly if he’s failed at hurting him with one of his big hooks.
Smith earned his way to the World Boxing Super Series final beating Nieky Holzken and Erick Skoglund. Smith looked lazy against Skoglund in pressing his foot off the accelerator after four rounds, and allowing him to come back into the fight to win rounds five through eight. Smith then came on strong in the last four rounds to preserve the victory. In Smith’s semifinal match against 34-year-old Holzken, he had all kinds of problems beating him by a 12 round unanimous decision last February. Smith was extremely fortunate that his originally scheduled opponent Juergen Braehmer dropped out of the fight because if he’d stuck around to take the fight with him, he probably would have lost.
Smith is certainly vulnerable in close against a guy with a good chin, power and defense, but Groves doesn’t possess any of those qualities. Groves’ chin is poor, as is his stamina and defense. Groves’ defense pretty much amounts to his offense. His offense is his defense. When Groves is busy throwing punches, he bottles up his opponent’s offense and he’s able to dominate them. Where Groves runs into problems is when he’s unable to KO his opponents before fatigue sets in. We saw how Groves gassed out in his fights against Carl Froch, Kenny Anderson, James DeGale and Badou Jack, and he wound up having problems against all four of them.
This is going to be a tough fight for Groves, who struggles against punchers. Smith is a flawed fighter, but he can punch with either hand. The inside game of Smith is going to be a problem for Groves if he allows the lanky 6’3” fighter to get near enough for him to wind up on one of his left hooks that he likes to throw. Groves’ chin and his stamina have always been lacking since he turned pro. What Groves has going in his favor is his excellent jab and his powerful right hand. When healthy, Groves is more than a handful for most fighters at 168. One of the reasons for that is Groves is clearly a light heavyweight in size, and he’s able to get over on his opponents by melting down to 168 to use his size to beat them. If Groves had to fight in the weight class that is more suited to his body at light heavyweight, he would have a tough time beating any of the top dogs in the division like Artur Beterbiev, Oleksandr Gvozdyk, Dmitry Bivol, Badou Jack and Eleider Alvarez.
”He can also punch short. He has a good left hook and a good right hand that comes over the top,” Groves said to ESPN.com about Callum Smith. “But I have the style that nullifies all that, my feet are sharp, that’s what beat Eubank, I can keep taking away the distance from him.”
Groves (28-3, 20 KOs) wants to make easy work of the 28-year-old Smith so that he can start looking for more importan things like a rematch against James ‘Chunky’ DeGale or fights against some of the other top fighters in the 168 pound weight class. Groves is also interested in potentially moving up to the light heavyweight division to go after the top guys in that weight class. There’s some good money fights available to Groves if he moves up to 175, such as fights against champions Adonis Stevenson, Dmitry Bivol, Eleider Alvarez, Artur Beterbiev and a rematch with Badou Jack. Groves lost to Jack by a close 12 round split decision in 2015. Groves, 30, still wants to avenge he loss, but before he goes in that path, he wants to go after a second fight with the 32-year-old DeGale. Groves can’t afford to wait on a second fight against ‘Chunky’ because he’s looking totally shot at this point in his career and close to calling it a day. If Groves doesn’t face DeGale soon like in in his next fight, it might be too late. DeGale is so depleted that he’s at risk of losing to even bottom dweller fighters. He already arguably lost twice to Caleb Truax, even though he judges gave him a controversial 12 round unanimous decision in their rematch last April. Boxing News 24 scored the rematch for Truax, because DeGale was something awful, clinching, running and just spoiling all night.
Although Smith has the longer reach, he’s not comfortable fighting on the outside for some reason. Smith likes to fight at short to medium range where he’s able to throw a lot of hooks with either hand. When Smith is on the outside, he gets hit a lot with straight right hands. Smith is kind of like a smaller version of heavyweight David Price, who also prefers to fight at medium to close range rather than on the outside. If Groves is able to keep the action on the outside on Friday night, he’s going to pot shot Smith all night long and either stop him or beat him by a one-sided 12 round decision. Smith has got to figure out a way for him to crowd Groves to get close enough for him to land one of his short hooks.
“Smith has slow feet-hand speed, his punch power is good but he will not have a target and once I hit him, he has never been as hard like he will do against me,” Groves said about Callum Smith. ”I don’t think it will be over early but after a few rounds, I’ll find the target and the night will be over.”
I agree with Groves. Smith is slow as heck, and he stands upright like a flagpole, presenting his head as an inviting target for his opponent’s punches. Smith is still unbeaten, but you can argue that’s because he hasn’t been fighting good opposition during his six year pro career. Smith’s promoter has done a good job of protecting him by matching him against weaker opposition. Smith’s best opponents during his career are these guys: Nieky Holzken, Erik Skoglund, Luke Blackledge, Rocky Fielding, Christopher Rebrasse and Hadillah Mohoumadi. There’s not much talent there with that bunch. Smith’s promoter has for some reason chosen not to match him against these fighters: David Benavidez, Anthony Dirrell, Jessie Hart, Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez, Caleb Plant and Jose Uzcategui. I’m not sure that Smith beats any of those guys. I hate to say it, but the way Smith looked in his recent fight against Holzken, he would lose to all of those fighters. As such, Groves will likely have too much talent and experience for Smith on Friday night and he’ll wind up knocking him out. Smith should have been training to get ready for a fighter like Groves a long time ago by fighting some of the better opposition in the super middleweight division, but he failed to do so. Smith was spoon fed lesser opposition by his promoter, and he’s likely going to be unprepared for the huge step up in class when he gets inside the ring with Groves on Friday night in their World Boxing Super Series final.