By Dan Ambrose: Don’t be surprised if Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) scores a knockout of Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) in their rematch on May 5, according to trainer Robert Garcia. He thinks that Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez is going to come up with an excellent game plan that will make things difficult for the Golden Boy Promotions star Canelo when the two of them get inside the ring for the still to be determine site in the U.S.
Never the less, Robert is picking Canelo to beat Golovkin this time around, because he feels the 27-year-old Mexican star is younger, faster and will have learned from the first fight. The fight could come down to whether Canelo has the conditioning to fight a harder fight than what he had to endure last time. We saw last time that Canelo couldn’t keep up with the pace that Golovkin set, and the judges seemed to give the Golden Boy star a lot of breaks when it came to scoring rounds that should have gone to Golovkin’s way. For example, judge Adelaide Byrd only gave Golovkin 2 rounds in the entire fight. That means she was scoring the middle rounds for Canelo despite him looing ragged and exhausted. Judge Don Trella gave Canelo round 7, which was Golovkin’s best round. Scoring like that saved Canelo from losing the fight, and it looked like he was given rounds that he didn’t deserve. With scoring like that in the rematch, Golovkin will have no chance of winning. The only way Golovkin has a chance is if knocks Canelo out or if there are better judging.
“I think Canelo is young. He’s learned a lot from the first fight ,” Robert Garcia said to K.O. Artist sports in predicting a win for Alvarez over GGG. “I think Canelo wins, but Abel Sanchez is a good trainer. Abel Sanchez is going to come up with a good game plan, and he [Golovkin] might show us something we don’t expect. But me and my pick is Canelo. He’s younger, and he learned a lot from the first fight. He’s going to be confident, so I pick Canelo,” Garcia said.
Canelo’s youth didn’t work for him last time against Golovkin. Canelo fought like he was the older fighter of the two by a long shot. Usually it’s the older fighters that get tired in fights, but in this case, it was Canelo. That suggests that Canelo’s youth is not going to be a factor in the rematch. If it wasn’t a factor last time, then it won’t factor in for the second fight, because fighters don’t change their conditioning overnight, especially when they’re like Canelo and have had stamina problems their entire career.
You can rule out Canelo’s youth as being something that can help him against Golovkin. I don’t think it will. As for Canelo learning from the previous fight with Golovkin, I’m not sure if that’s going to help him either. The things that worked for Canelo last time was him doing the following things: staying on the ropes, moving frequently to escape GGG’s pressure, countering him when he would throw a power shot, and pressuring at the end of the fight in round 12. Golovkin is probably going to keep Canelo from being able to move on him by making sure he stays close. That means more chances for Canelo to counter, but it also means he’s going to be forced to fight nonstop without his rest breaks. If Canelo can’t fight continuously without his necessary rest breaks, then he’ll tire and fall apart within 6 rounds, maybe less than that. Learning is not going to help Canelo, because he can’t take advantage of the small things that he learned. The tricks Canelo used last time, staying on the ropes, running and countering, are likely not going to work in the rematch. Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez will make sure that he’s ready to cut off the ring on Canelo if he tries to run. Likewise, Golovkin won’t allow Canelo to stand against the ropes without unloading on him like he was doing from rounds 9 through 12.
“But I wouldn’t be surprised if GGG wins, and maybe even knocks him out, because Abel Sanchez,” Garcia said. ”I have a lot of respect for Abel Sanchez. I think Abel Sanchez is capable of coming up with a great game plan and pulling it off. I think the first fight was a hell of a fight, but I think Canelo learned a lot from it and got a lot of confidence from feeling his power and knowing that he didn’t get hurt,” Garcia said.
If there’s going to be a knockout in the second fight, it’s going to be GGG that scores it. Golovkin has the better stamina, chin and he knows what to do to wear Canelo down and knock him out this time. Golovkin is the true middleweight in this fight. He’s not bulked up like Canelo. Golovkin is a natural middleweight. Golovkin is the much better knockout artist of the two. Canelo is not a knockout guy. Most of Canelo’s knockouts were against fighters that he had a size advantage over. In other words, Canelo is a weight bully. He’s been talking advantage of opposition that he’s had s size advantage over. When Canelo didn’t have a size advantage over Golovkin and Julio Cesar Chavez Junior, he couldn’t knock them out of hurt them.
If Canelo does have any confidence from the first fight with Golovkin, that confidence is going to evaporate almost immediately once he starts getting hit hard and he’s unable to handle the pressure from him. Confidence is good for a fighter to have in theory, but when they get inside the ring, they find out what reality, then it’s all useless. Canelo is going to fight like he did last time against GGG, because he lacks the stamina and the natural size to be stationary and brawl with him. Canelo doesn’t like getting hit by Golovkin. We saw that clearly. Canelo would start running each time he would take a few hard hits. The reason for that is Canelo is used to fighting welterweights with no power. He doesn’t like getting hit by Golovkin, so he runs from the battlefield. Canelo will do the same in the rematch. He’ll never change.
”I think Triple G just needs to put more pressure, but Canelo is going to be faster too,” Garcia said.
Canelo won’t be faster in the rematch. You don’t become faster from fight to fight. Canelo’s hand speed will be the same. The only thing that he has control over is his weight. Canelo might be lighter or heavier. We’ll have to see. My guess is Canelo will come into the fight a little bit lighter hoping that it’ll his conditioning. It won’t help it. Canelo has had stamina problems since he was fighting at welterweight. He’s not going to improve that area is his game by being a little bit lighter. Canelo will gas out just like last time, but I think he’s going to take a beating from Golovkin and his trainer Chepo Reynoso will need to throw in the towel to protect his fighter. Reynoso won’t want to see Canelo get bludgeoned into the canvas Golovkin once he wears down. That’s why I see the towel being thrown in to save the red-headed Mexican star.