By Allan Fox: Andre Berto sees Andre Ward (31-0, 15 KOs) potentially knocking out former light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KOs) in their rematch this Saturday night. Berto says Ward has seen something from the first fight with Kovalev that he thinks he can expose to get a knockout. Ward isn’t known for being a knockout puncher, however.
Ward’s KO percentage is only 48 percent during his 13-year pro career. It stands to reason that if Ward couldn’t knockout Sullivan Barrera, Alexander Brandon, Edwin Rodriguez or Carl Froch, then his chances of knocking out Kovalev are pretty lousy. Ward very well may win the fight on Saturday night, but as far as knocking out Kovalev, It’s a long shot.
If anything, if Ward starts siting down on his punches, it could lead to him getting hit back with some shots that he doesn’t get hit with. Ward’s not able to generate a lot of power in close. He throws shots, but they’re not the type that knockout opponents unless they’re weight drained like Chad Dawson was in his fight with Ward in 2013.
“I believe both guys are hungry and motivated,” said Berto to Fighthub. “They have a lot to prove. I believe there’s more at stake for this next one. For Andre, I believe this is the best I’ve seen him in years. He’s hungry and he’s focused. Before the last fight, he couldn’t even run, because he had some issues. But he’s been feeling good, feeling healthy. I can’t wait to see it. Andre has a very good knack for adapting quickly. I believe he’s carrying his confidence into the rematch. The fact that he was able to see how Kovalev slowed down in the midpoint of the first fight, and it carries on to this next one. But Kovalev’s hungry, he wants them belt back. This is an opportunity for both of them to prove,” said Berto.
Berto seems to glorifying Ward’s so called adapting ability. I didn’t see much adapting from Ward last time he fought Kovalev. I saw a lot rule-bending with Ward using prolonged wrestling on the inside while the referee was asleep at the wheel and not doing his job to break the fighters and take points off. There was no genius behind what Ward did. If Kovalev decided to bend the rules by hitting Ward low for prolonged periods of time, would he be celebrated for his ability to adapt and overcome? No, I think the boxing world would say that he got away with bending the rules due to the referee being asleep at the wheel. Fighters aren’t supposed to wrestle for prolonged periods of time without having points taken away or being disqualified. You can’t celebrate what Ward did, because it wasn’t boxing. It was wrestling, and the referee didn’t do anything about it.
”I do see a stoppage later on in the fight,” said Berto. “Andre is getting mentally ready for what he wants to do, and this is the reason why he wants to do it. He sees something. He feels something in that first fight that he believes that he’s going to be able to expose. I believe there’s a possibility of a stoppage,” said Berto in saying he sees Ward knocking out Kovalev.
Ward only wins one way nowadays and that’s by decision. The only time Ward deviates from his decision wins is when he faces someone out of his league like Paul Smith of a weight drained Chad Dawson.
Kovalev has the better chance by far to get the knockout on Saturday.
Here are the ways that Kovalev can win:
– Knockout [KO, as in knocked out]
– TKO
– Corner stoppage
– Decision
– Disqualification due to Ward being pulled out of the fight by the referee for excessive holding/wrestling
Here are the ways Ward can win on Saturday:
– Decision [controversial]
– Disqualification: Kovalev could go nuts and foul Ward in response to Ward’s excessive holding/ugly wrestling moves
if Ward fails to get a victory over Kovalev using the above methods, then I see him going down to defeat on Saturday night. Ward can’t win beyond disqualification or decision in my opinion. Even with Ward by a decision, I think it will require that he use long periods of wrestling with the referee choosing not to take points away from him for it. If Ward is forced to fight Kovalev without grappling, I see him losing the fight to him.
Berto’s prediction might get some boxing fans excited enough to want to purchase the Ward-Kovalev 2 fight. It sounds like wishful thinking though on Berto’s part. The first fight was a BORING one. It was 9 rounds of Ward holding after he was dominated in rounds 1 and 2. It doesn’t take a genius to predict that the second fight will be just as boring, because Ward has already said that Kovalev “Can’t learn how to fight on the inside overnight.”
Ward gave away the battle plan for the rematch by saying that. But I don’t think there’s any real mystery in what Ward plans on doing in the fight. He’s not going to brawl with Kovalev from the outside. Ward is going to take the fight to the inside and look to hold and maul for 12 rounds instead of just 9 rounds in the first fight. Ward started the mauling in round 3 last time. He then continued to maul the final bell in the 12th. This time, I see Ward starting to grapple immediately in round 1 and continuing to do that for the entire fight unless the referee disqualifies him or takes points away.
Berto sounds like he’s not thinking clearly about the type of fighter that Ward is. As good as Ward is, he’s a Floyd Mayweather Jr. type of fighter. Ward likes to land pot shots from the outside, and then fall forward into a clinch where he’ll do a lot of wrestling for a prolonged period of time. As we saw in the previous fight between Ward and Kovalev, the grappling can on for minutes of each round with very few punches being thrown. Ward isn’t going to knock Kovalev out with that kind of fighting. Ward might tire Kovalev from the holding and wrestling, but he’s not going to knock him out.
What Berto didn’t notice about the first fight between Ward and Kovalev was how tired Ward was too. It wasn’t just Kovalev got tired. Ward was tired as well. Ward had nothing on his shots late in the fight, because he had faded badly. There was no chance of Ward knocking out Kovalev. Ward’s lacks the power anyway, but what little power he had was gone by the 10th and 11th rounds.
It would make a great story-line if Ward were to come on and score a knockout in the rematch, because it would help quiet all the boxing fans that felt that Ward got a gift decision last November against Kovalev. But I don’t see it as being realistic. Berto might have done better with his prediction if he came up with something a little more believable like Ward winning by another controversial decision or Ward winning by a one-sided 12 round unanimous decision. Those two scenarios are possible. Ward knocking out Kovalev is HIGHLY improbable given his lack of power.
Berto’s career is in a bad stage right now, as he was knocked out in the 9th round on April 22 by former IBF welterweight champion Shawn Porter at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Berto (31-5, 24 KOs) was knocked down 3 times in the fight in getting dropped in round 2, and 2 times in the 9th round. Berto suffered a bad concussion in the fight. He said he was head-butted by Porter. Berto is going to take it easy for a while and recover from the fight before he makes his next move. Berto’s career looks pretty well done. Berto has now lost 2 out of his last 3 fights. Berto can beat the Victor Ortiz types, but he appears to be out of his league against the top level fighters.
