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Golovkin: Canelo is nervous like a rabbit

Image: Golovkin: Canelo is nervous like a rabbit

By Dan Ambrose: Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) sees fear in Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) as the two head towards their meeting inside the ring on September 16. Golovkin says ever since the fight with the Mexican star Canelo was announced, he’s seemed nervous, and rabbit-like. Golovkin says Canelo is just talking and looking nervous. Golovkin says Canelo just relax, because their fight is just the way life is.

Being nervous could be a clear sign that Canelo knows that he’s not good enough to beat Triple G. Canelo has to know that he wasn’t fighting the best when he was at 154, and he definitely fight the best when he was briefly the WBC middleweight champion. Canelo arguably beat a paper champion in Miguel Cotto to win the WBC 160lb title. Canelo’s recent fight with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. didn’t show that he can compete with Golovkin. That fight was more of the same kind of match-making that Golden Boy has been doing for Canelo since he turned pro. It was a terrible fight the moment it was made. Chavez Jr. has arguably been finished as a fighter since 2012. To drag him out for an opponent for Canelo to fight on HBO PPV was sad.

That was a catch-weight for Canelo and Cotto. In Canelo’s only defense of the WBC middleweight title, he fought welterweight Amir Khan instead of Golovkin, who was the No.1 ranked contender in the World Boxing Council’s ratings.

“It’s a present to the fans,” said Golovkin to RingTV about his fight with Canelo. “I feel like he’s nervous. His team is nervous. He’s talking like a bunny. I came to the ring, and he’s like a bunny. Relax, this is life,” said Golovkin about Canelo.

I get the impression that Golovkin’s message about Canelo needing to relax and accept how life is to be a message that he needs to accept what will be coming for him on September 16. Golovkin wants to knock Canelo in order to give the boxing public a present. In this case, the present will be Golden Boy Promotion’s golden goose.

There are a variety of reasons why Canelo is nervous like a rabbit, as Golovkin says. I believe these are the MAJOR reasons why Canelo is acting so nervous:

– Potential embarrassment

– The pain of being knocked unconscious

– PPV numbers dropping after a bad knockout loss

– Canelo’s popularity taking a bit hit

– Being exposed

– Another loss on his resume

– Having to face reality that he’s not good enough to be a top guy at 160

The potential embarrassment for Canelo if he loses BADLY to Golovkin

If Canelo gets beaten in a one-sided manner by Golovkin on September 16, it’s going to be embarrassing potentially for the Mexican star. Canelo’s previous loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. was a bad one, but he at least got through the fight in one piece by not getting knocked out. Against Golovkin, it could be a different story for Canelo. Golovkin could knock him out, and that would obviously be very embarrassing for Canelo.
The pain of being knocked out

Getting knocked out by Golovkin could be painful for Canelo. Depending on how bad the knockout is, Canelo could be stopped on his feet after taking a lot of hits, or he could wind up on the canvas wondering what hit him. Either way, I think it’s not good for Canelo. You could understand Canelo being as nervous as a “bunny” if he’s concerned about being knocked out.

Canelo’s PPV numbers could drop off after a loss to Golovkin

A loss for Canelo to Golovkin could definitely see him with fewer PPV buys in future fights on HBO. Look what happened to Manny Pacquiao after his defeat to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2015. Pacquiao’s 2 fights on PPV since the loss to Mayweather have seen his PPV numbers drop to 400,000 buys for the Tim Bradley fight and then to 300,000 buys for the Jessie Vargas fight. Pacquiao used to bring in 1 million buys per fight on PPV. Canelo didn’t take a hit in terms of his popularity after his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013, but that was because Canelo fought Mayweather. The boxing public wasn’t going to hold it against Canelo for losing that fight. The fans may give up on Canelo if he loses to Triple G, especially if it’s a bad loss.

Canelo may need to give up on the middleweight division if he loses to Golovkin

Canelo is now officially fighting at middleweight, but he might need to re-think the idea of him fighting in the 160 pound weight class if he loses badly to Golovkin. Losing to Golovkin doesn’t mean that Canelo can’t find success in the middleweight division. Canelo can still make things happen if he goes after WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders. However, where things can go wrong for Canelo is if he can’t beat Danny Jacobs, Jermall Charlo, Ryota Murata, David Lemieux and Tureano Johnson. If Canelo loses to Golovkin and starts taking losses to the above mentioned fighters, then it’s a sure fire sign that Canelo does not belong in the middleweight division. He would then need to try and find a way back down to either 154 or 155. If Canelo can’t make either of those weights any longer, then he could find himself in the same position that Adrien Broner is with him no longer able to fight in the featherweight or lightweight divisions. Broner used to be a very good fighter at super featherweight and lightweight. But now that he’s moved up to welterweight, he’s been exposed as being too weak for the division. If Canelo is too weak and small to be a major player at 160, then he might need to move back down in weight if he wants to be successful.

One area where Canelo may look to get an advantage over Triple G is in the next morning weigh-in on the day of the fight. This is a mandated weight check that the International Boxing Federation requires in order to make sure the fighters don’t rehydrate too much. It’s a move to make things fair. Daniel Jacobs skipped the IBF’s weight check on the day of the fight in order for him to gain weight without having to limit his fluid intake on the day of the fight. Golovkin took part in the IBF’s weight check, and he made weight and still beat Jacobs. If Canelo chooses to skip the IBF weight check, he could gain an advantage over Golovkin. If Canelo is able to use that extra time to rehydrate, then he could be stronger for it by the time the fight started in the evening on September 16. Frankly, I’d be very surprised if Canelo takes part in the secondary weigh-in. I don’t know if it’ll help Canelo to gain back a bunch of weight. It didn’t help Danny Jacobs. He was said to be in the 180s on the night of the fight against GGG, but he still lost the fight. You’ve got to have the talent to win. You might get a small advantage by skipping the IBF’s next morning weigh-in, but if Canelo isn’t good enough to beat Golovkin, then he’s going to lose no matter what tricks he uses to try and gain an edge. Ideally, you’d like to see the fighters on an even playing field with both guys doing the same thing by taking part in the IBF’s weight check, but I think Canelo sees this as war, and he won’t take part in the IBF’s second day weight check.

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