By Harry Rowland: This Saturday 6th May, Cinco de Mayo weekend, at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, Mexico’s two biggest boxing stars collide in this 164.5lb catchweight none title fight.
The announcement of this one caused some confusion in boxing circles for a number of reasons. Firstly that Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez 48-1-1 (34), has spent the last few years adamant he is a Light Middleweight, so he could not possibly contest Gennedy Golovkin for the undisputed Middleweight championship at 160lbs.
Secondly, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. 50-2-1 (32) has not been active enough of late to warrant such a major showdown, his last significant win coming nearly five years ago when he beat Andy Lee, and his last loss coming only 2 years ago when he was stopped in nine rounds against Andrzej Fonfara. He has only fought six times since beating Lee, winning four of them.
Lastly, it seems this could be an ugly mismatch which could harm both fighters’ profiles. Chavez is clearly past his best, both motivationally and from a miles on the clock perspective, whereas at only 26 years old, Alvarez is still fresh and rated the number one pound for pound boxer by the respectable boxrec.com. Chavez is rated at 12 in the Super Middleweight rankings alone.
Still there are enough positives to sell it to the fans: it pits two of the biggest names Mexican boxing has ever had, on the most celebrated Mexican holiday weekend, the 14.5lb step up in weight from Alvarez’s previous contest is going to give his opponent a huge advantage, and perhaps most telling of all: on paper this is a safe big money fight, that Alvarez will be forgiven for if he then goes on to challenge fan favourite Golovkin in September.
So how significant will the catchweight be? Judging by the $1m penalty for every pound over that either fighter weighs, both teams are seeing it as a crucial element of the fight. Some fighters don’t fluctuate in weight between fights or on the night of the fight, highly successful fighters such as Floyd Mayweather Jr, Golovkin, and Carl Froch barely gain a few pounds from weighing in to answering the first bell. Conversely big name fighters such as Daniel Jacobs, Kell Brook, and Ricky Hatton have gained huge advantages by entering the ring up to 15lbs above their respective weight divisions.
Alvarez and Chavez happen to be the most well known in the sport for the latter, having continually bulked up by around 20lbs by fight night, and this is generally viewed critically, not only as it can give them an unfair advantage but also because it is deemed to harm the body over time.
It is likely that Alvarez will find himself in the ring with a much bigger man for the first time, as Chavez has boxed as heavy as 172.5lbs. He will probably have at least a ten pound weight advantage, but it is possible that Alvarez could produce his best performance yet, as this will be the first time in many years his body hasn’t had to rehydrate from draining down to 154/155lbs. This might be the reason he has sometimes appeared sluggish, having to pace himself through a twelve round fight.
Chavez 31 will surely be the agresser, not only due to his size advantage but also because of his classic Mexican come-forward style. He will enjoy a 4 inch height and 2.5 inch reach advantage, at 6’1″ and 73″ respectively, so logic would tell us that his best chance would be to keep the fight at distance and use his natural size advantages. But the gap in talent and skill will likely oppose this logic.
Alvarez is a more polished stylist, he is a great all round fighter, much like his promotor Oscar De La Hoya was before him. he can fight going forwards and backwards, has strength, power, great shot variety, and a solid defence.
If you had to find a criticism it would be that his speed of hand and foot aren’t quite as strong as the rest of his arsenal, but his exceptional timing makes up any downfall in these areas. Chavez will be slower but potentially more powerful, so he will be looking to set up a big punch rather than outbox his opponent.
The cinnamon haired youngster is clearly the superior technician, so it will be in Chavez’s interest to turn the contest into a brawl, imposing his physical size and strength onto his man. Alvarez will be looking to pick him off and not get caught on the ropes for too long.
It is unclear how much Chavez has left at this stage in his career, but it has to be assumed he is past his best, and at his best he was beatable, winning some questionable decisions against Carlos Molina, Matt Vanda and Brian Vera, which were all immediately rematched due to the controversy of the outcome. Alvarez has had some close affairs but generally against a much higher level of competition, and he seems to be getting better and better as he enjoys his prime years, so I can’t see him losing here.
I think Chavez’s size keeps him on his feet to see the final bell, where he drops a unanimous decision. But it wouldn’t surprise me if he is stopped late, depending on his conditioning.