By Allan Fox: Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya is thinking of giving middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin the percentage that he wanted for him to face their star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in September. De La Hoya says he’s going to speak to Canelo about the idea, according to Dan Rafael. Golden Boy had offered Golovkin a flat fee of $15 million for the Canelo fight, but that offer is a risky one considering that the fight might not do as well as previously thought.
Golovkin’s fight last Saturday night against Daniel Jacobs is estimated at over 150,000 buys on HBO PPV. If a fight against Golovkin isn’t as big as originally though, then Golden Boy would be taking a big risk in giving Golovkin a guaranteed $15 million.
Canelo still has to win his fight on May 6 against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. for a fight between him and Golovkin to take place in September. Golden Boy obviously isn’t going to throw Canelo into the ring with Golovkin this year if he’s beaten by Chavez Jr. Canelo would need to try and avenge that loss, which might be a mistake if he gets beaten really badly by Chavez Jr. You can argue that Golden Boy might need to come up with a stricter catch-weight to bring Chavez Jr. down to a weight that would weaken him enough for Canelo to win.
“I’m going to talk to Canelo about it on Friday and figure out the structure,” De La Hoya said to Dan Rafael at ESPN.com. “We have to look at today’s market. I’m not sure what the numbers are for his fight [against Jacobs], but I hear they’re low. For me to take a huge risk on a guarantee is absurd.”
There’s good and bad news in what De La Hoya is saying as far as Golovkin and his promoter Tom Loeffler goes. It’s nice that Golovkin could get a percentage deal for the fight, but it might not be good if Canelo tells De Hoya to offer Golovkin a really low percentage like 10% of the revenue. I don’t think Golovkin would ever agree to that. You’d like to think that Canelo would be willing to give Golovkin at least a 60-40 percentage split of the revenue.
It’s hard to imagine Canelo and De La Hoya doing that. I think they would likely offer Golovkin a 75/25 split at the most and refuse to budge from that number. Under the best circumstances, Golovkin might potentially agree to that if he’s not sure whether he’s got much more time left in his career. Some boxing fans think that Golovkin is starting to age because of his close win over Daniel Jacobs last Saturday night on HBO PPV. However, that looked like a bad game plan gone wrong. Golovkin got stuck fighting the game plan that his trainer Abel Sanchez put together for him, and there weren’t any adjustments in his corner in the second half.
It was clear that Golovkin needed to be switched back to his normal “drama show” fighting style in the second half of the fight, but Sanchez had him boxing Jacobs instead of going after him. I don’t think Golovkin has aged. I think the game plan that he had was poor, and his corner not being responsive to make the needed adjustments in the second half of the fight. Golovkin might need to think about getting a second trainer to give him some better instructions in the future.
Another problem that could get in the way of a Canelo-Golovkin fight in September is Golovkin’s possible June 10 fight against WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders in Kazakhstan. De La Hoya thinks it’s too close to the September fight. He sees the fight as being risky for Golovkin because he could suffer an injury of some type against Saunders or he could even lose. De La Hoya doesn’t want Golovkin to take that fight. De La Hoya also thinks the Saunders fight could get in the way of the promotion for the Canelo-Golovkin fight.
It would leave less time to promote the fight. Instead of being able to promote the fight starting after Canelo’s May 6 fight against Chavez Jr, Golden Boy would need to wait until after Golovkin’s fight with Saunders on June 10. It would cut into the promotion of the Canelo-Golovkin fight by at least one month. Having 4 months to promote the Canelo-Golovkin fight would obviously be a little better than just 3 months. However, there would be so much interest in the fight, it might not matter if there isn’t quite as much time to market the fight.
Loeffler doesn’t want to skip the June fight because he points out that Golovkin missed out on a fight in 2016 because he was waiting around for Canelo. Golovkin fought only 2 times last year. Loeffler doesn’t want to have Golovkin miss out on another fight just because he’s waiting around for the Canelo fight. If the Canelo fight doesn’t happen once again, then Golovkin would be missing out if he were to choose not to fight in June like De La Hoya wants. It’s better for Golovkin if he faces Saunders in June, because it gives him the chance to win the final middleweight title. Winning the WBO title will give Golovkin all 4 middleweight belts, and that could help him get a better deal in the Canelo negotiations.
There’s also good money for Golovkin to make in fighting Saunders in Kazakhstan. It would be a very good payday for Golovkin. If he skips that payday, then the money that he gets for fighting Canelo won’t be as significant. If Golden Boy is willing to give Golovkin an extra amount of money to make up for what he loses by not fighting Saunders, then you can argue that it might not be a bad idea for Triple G to skip that fight. Golovkin wants the WBO title for his legacy as well. If he lets this opportunity pass him by not facing Saunders, he might not get another chance at fighting for that belt. If Saunders loses the WBO title, Golovkin could find it difficult to get the fight against the guy that wins the belt.
As far as the percentage deal goes for Golovkin-Canelo, Golden Boy will need to make a decision whether it’s smart to forget about the flat fee offer. It could be a mistake if they give Golovkin a percentage. If the fight generates huge money in PPV, then Golovkin will end up with a lot more money than he would have gotten if he was given the $15 million flat fee offer. If the idea is for De La Hoya to make sure that Canelo winds up with the best deal where he gets the most money, he might still be better off if Golden Boy gives Golovkin just $15 million and hogs the rest of the money.
“We always thought a percentage deal would make the most sense and be the most fair, and if they’re willing to discuss that now, it makes a lot of sense,” Loeffler said to espn.com.
It doesn’t make sense for Golovkin and Loeffler if the percentage deal that Golden Boy offers him is a very small one.