By Jeff Aranow: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has a “big chance” of beating undefeated Gennady “GGG” Golovkin if the two of them face each other this year, says former four division world champion Erik Morales. He sees improvement in the game of the 26-year-old Canelo (48-1-1, 34 KOs) in his recent fights, and he thinks that might give him the ability to beat the 34-year-old Golovkin (36-0, 33 KOs).
Morales sees the Canelo-Golovkin fight as an even one right now, but he does feel that Golovkin has more experience and technical ability of the two.
The big question is will Canelo and Golovkin be able to face each other in 2017. It’s all well and good that the 40-year-old Morales is giving Canelo a good chance of defeating GGG. But if the fight can’t be negotiated due to the money offer from Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy not being to Golovkin’s promoter’s liking, then there’s no point in even discussing who would win the fight.
“[Canelo vs. Golovkin] is a very difficult fight that hasn’t happened,” said Erik Morales to Fighthub.com. “As the two have looked, they have a lot of potential. It’s practically an even fight. We will see in the 1st round how they present themselves to be able to evaluate. I know that’s difficult, but until then, they look very even. I think Gennady has more attributes. He has more experience, more technical capacity, even though he’s more forceful. He’s not going it one way. He’s a more complete fighter. Canelo has a big chance to win with the way he looked in recent fights,” said Morales.
Canelo has looked uncertain and not confident in his fights against Liam Smith, Amir Khan, Erislandy Lara and Floyd Mayweather Jr. Canelo appeared mentally fragile in all of those fights. Canelo’s power bailed him out against Liam Smith and Khan. The judges gave Canelo a huge break in the Lara fight, as he lost the fight in the view of many in the boxing world. There was no question that Mayweather took Canelo to school in beating him in 2013, even though one judge scored the fight a draw.
Golovkin has a better jab than Mayweather, and we saw how Canelo was totally dominated by the jab of “Money” Mayweather. The 5’10 ½” Golovkin is taller than the 5’8” Mayweather, and he could easily use his jab to beat Canelo and not let him use his favorite weapon, which is his left hook. Canelo has a decent right hand but his main weapon is his left hook that he likes to throw when his opponents commit to a punch. Canelo counters them with his left hook.
However, when Canelo is jabbed, he can’t land his left hook, and he’s pretty helpless. Golovkin and Canelo have identical reach at 70”, but Canelo still needs to be able to land his left hook for him to be effective. He’s not going to be able to beat Golovkin if he’s jabbed all night long by him. The only chance that Canelo has to win is if Golovkin takes the fight to close range and starts firing off power shots. Canelo will then look to counter him with his left hook like he always does.
Canelo will be facing the bigger and stronger Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on May 6. Canelo may not get out of that fight in one piece if Chavez Jr. is at his best. We could still see a Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in the future, but the fight might be delayed until 2018 at the minimum. Canelo will to try and avenge his loss to Chavez Jr. in the second half of 2017.
