By Adam Kallanous: This Saturday, November 19th, Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KOs) and Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) put their undefeated records on the line for P4P supremacy on HBO pay-per-view from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Who will win?
Ward started boxing at 9 years old under the tutelage of his trainer, and god father Virgil Hunter. Ward is famous for not losing a fight since he was 14, and being the last American male to bring back a boxing Olympic gold medal for the U.S in 2004. All in all, he ended with 114-5 record as an amateur before turning pro in 2004.
Ward first gained stardom as a pro after winning a boxing super middleweight tournament dubbed “The Super Six.” Ward entered the tournament an underdog, but emerged victorious with wins over Mikkel Kessler, Allan Green, and Carl Froch. He followed that up with a knock out win over Chad Dawson in 2012, but has only had 4 fights since, with no marquee opponent. Legal disputes with his previous promoter and injuries, took some of Ward’s prime years. This is his first major fight since moving to the light heavyweight division.
Kovalev started on the other side of the globe at 11 years old putting together an amateur record of 195-18. While he was able to gather some Russian and military gold medals, he does not have an Olympic medal on his mantle. Kovalev made the move to pro 5 years after Ward in 2009.
Kovalev had a slower, and steadier rise. After teaming up with famed coach John David Jackson, he was recognized by Main Events Boxing during a KO victory over Darnell Boone. The Russians first title fight came in a stoppage win over Nathan Cleverly back in 2013. Since he has added a couple more belts to his wardrobe, one taken from an aged Bernard Hopkins.He is currently the Defending WBA (Undisputed), IBF and WBO (Super) light heavyweight champion. He has been on fire with the exception of his last lack luster performance against Issac Chilemba.
Styles make fights and this one pulls two guys from either side of the spectrum. Kovalev is a boxer / puncher that possesses mythical power, while Ward is revered by many in the industry as the best boxer on the planet.
This fight is basically a 50/50 in the eyes of bookmakers. The fans are split, and it’s easy to see why. Let’s analyze some of the key factors in this fight.
The power deficit
Possibly the most talked about factor is the difference in power between the two. Kovalev is known as a devastating puncher while Ward was not a huge puncher at 168, and appears even less so at 175. Kovalev can bang, but history is filled with countless fighters, boxing circles around guys that could punch hard. The power will be a factor, but it’s hardly the quintessential element.
Ward’s Injuries
Trainer John David Jackson has stated that they will target Ward’s shoulder which was surgically repaired in 2013, but Ward’s injury is one that most will experience 100% recovery. Unless Kovalev and camp are aware of something the rest of us are not privy to this should have no relevance.
Grappling
Ward is a former wrestler, and it shows. He is notorious for clinching, and turning it into a grappling match. He will completely shut down your offense, and score points while doing damage on the inside. He will use it to smother your offense, and drop your work rate to a crawl. Most importantly he uses it to frustrate you to the point of unravel. How much effect this has on the fight will depend. For one how will the ref handle the clinching? Technically, clinching is against the rules of boxing, but the enforcement of this rule varies greatly. Kovalev’s trainer John David Jackson believes that the secret to avoiding a clinch fest is the Krusher’s power. He believes that Ward will taste Kovalev’s power on the inside and abandon the strategy. I do see clinching as a major factor in the fight, with really no way to accurately predict just how significant.
Kovalev’s mental state
If you’re like most you didn’t think that Kovalev looked too great in his last outing. It was the Krusher’s first return to Ekaterinburg, Russia. His last bout in Ekaterinburg ended in tragedy. It was just like many other prize fights for Kovelov, but in this particular one his opponent, Roman Simakov would lose his life.
After arriving in Ekaterinburg , Kovalev stopped to meet Roman Simakov’s family for the first time. In a benevolent act he donated his entire purse to the Simakov family, but one must ask how much weight all this had on his mental state right before a fight. Ray “Boom Boom” Mancini was never the same fighter again after a similar tragic outcome. There is the possibility that Sergey’s mental state will be altered from this point on.
The X-factor
Ward has something that’s simply not quantifiable. It’s his ability to anticipate the future, and react. It’s very Mayweather Jr-esque the way he is able to counter, and move just at the right moment. It’s a step above incredibly fast reflexes, and is a rarity in the sport. I think this factor is a huge impact on any Ward fight, and I see this one as no different.
The battle of the jab
In a nut shell whoever establishes the jab in this fight will win. Ward will jab you to death. He will use it to disrupt you, to neutralize your offense, control distance, and even make you sick. Yes, I said make you sick. Virgil Hunter, and Ward have developed a snapping jab designed to make opponents weak, and nauseated by mimicking whiplash.
Kovalev has a completely different, but also effective jab. He uses it to hurt you. His jab is a piston like jab that has dropped opponents. What makes it especially dangerous is he uses it from distance. Like a jouster her thrusts it into his opponents head and body while leveraging the full length of his body.
Conclusion
In a fight where a coin toss is as accurate as the experts, a prediction is a hunch at best. I plan on enjoying this fight without a preconceived notion of who will win. The beauty of boxing is that anything can happen in the squared circle.
Let’s face it. Most of 2016 has been filled with boxing matches that were predictable, and even expected. It’s a relief to have a match-up that’s going to split the fans, the media, the trainers, and the best boxing minds out there.
If I absolutely had to bet money on this fight I would go with the Krusher, but I would keep the bet small.