By Dan Ambrose: Former three division world champion Julio Cesar Chavez says that Mexican star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez could beat middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin right now if they face each other. Chavez is just not sure when the fight will take place between them. Chavez didn’t voice frustration at Canelo (48-1-1, 34 KOs) not taking the fight against Golovkin, but his face had a look of exasperation when he made a comment about not knowing when the two will face each other.
Canelo is supposed to be fighting Golovkin in late September 2017, according to Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya. However, the last we heard from De La Hoya, Golovkin would need to agree to an eight-figure offer for the fight. It’s seen as a flat fee and not a percentage deal that Golovkin was offered.
If Golden Boy chooses not to give Golovkin a percentage of the revenue of the fight, which is often the norm in big fights between two stars, it’s possible that the Canelo-Golovkin match won’t take place in 2017.
Just when it will happen would be anyone’s guess. If the eight-figure flat fee continues to be the requirement for Golovkin agreeing to fight Canelo, then it might not happen at any time in the future unless one of the two champions suddenly starts getting beaten over and over. You can’t say for sure who that would be.
Canelo has already arguably been beaten three times in his career in his fights against Floyd Mayweather Jr., Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara. Many boxing fans felt that Canelo was beaten by Lara and Trout. Canelo was given a 12 round decision win over Trout, and a 12 round split decision win over Lara. This writer had Canelo losing to both Trout and Lara.
Canelo is clearly a flawed fighter, and he’s not even being matched against the dangerous guys at 154 like the Charlo brothers, Demetrius Andrade and Julian “J-Rock” Williams. Canelo hasn’t been matched against Golovkin or Danny Jacobs at 160. There weren’t rematches for Canelo against Trout or Lara, and there should have been given the controversy surrounding those fights.
Chavez said this to Thaboxingvoice.com about a fight between Canelo and Golovkin:
“I think he [Canelo] has a good chance to win, but who knows when the fight will happen?” said Chavez bout Canelo fighting Golovkin. “Canelo has the abilities to beat Triple G. I don’t think it’s his movement. I think it’s his power. He has a lot of power.”
The interviewer spoke of Canelo having problems with fighters that move around the ring. In Canelo’s loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013, he had more problems with the jabs of Mayweather than his movement. Mayweather beat Canelo with his jabs. Erislandy Lara got the better of Canelo with his pot shots and defense. Austin Trout outworked Canelo by throwing a high number of jabs in his very questionable loss to the Mexican star three years ago.
The movement isn’t what gives Canelo problems. It’s the jabs. He’s a counter puncher, and he needs his opponents to commit to power shots in order for him to land his counter left hooks and short right hands. Mayweather realized this, so he gave Canelo nothing to counter.
Mayweather fought Canelo like he did counter puncher Juan Manuel Marquez by throwing a lot of jabs and single right hands. Canelo needs his opponents to throw power shots for him to be able to land his shots. When Canelo does try and walk his opponents down, he frequently stops when he’s met with a hard jab.
When the interviewer asked Chavez if Canelo would be seen at the same level as him if he beats Golovkin, Chavez walked away while shaking his head. However, he did say, “Possibly.”
It was a ridiculous question from the interview to put Canelo in the same breath as Chavez. It doesn’t matter if Canelo beats the soon to be 35-year-old Golovkin.
The 26-year-old Canelo still won’t be seen in the same light as Chavez. The fact that Canelo has already kept Golovkin waiting this long before fighting him suggests to some boxing fans that he’s waiting until the Kazakhstan fighter is older and beatable. It’s hard to attribute greatness to a fighter that waits until his opponent is older before fighting them.
If Canelo believed he’s better than Golovkin, he should have already have fought him in 2016 instead of vacating his WBC middleweight title in order to steer around the fight. It looks bad that Canelo vacated his WBC 160lb title rather than fight Triple G. That was interpreted as ugly news by the boxing public. Canelo had already been fighting at catch-weights ever since his loss to Mayweather in 2013. Canelo kept fighting at catch-weights Erislandy Lara, James Kirkland, Miguel Cotto and Amir Khan.
Canelo then moved down to junior middleweight to challenge WBO 154lb champion Liam Smith in his last fight in September. Canelo took the fight against Smith rather than the arguably more talented Charlo brothers, Demetrius Andrade, Julian Williams or Lara. That move by Canelo was seen as a cherry picking move by a lot of fans.
In 2011, Canelo won the vacant WBC junior middleweight title in a catch-weight fight against welterweight Mathew Hatton. It was bad enough the fight took place at a catchweight for a world title, but then to be fighting a welterweight rather than a junior middleweight for the WBC 154lb title rather than one of the top 15 contenders in the division. It looked weak.
I don’t think Canelo beats Golovkin in 2017. In looking at the two super star fighters’ last matches, Canelo is still having stamina problems that require him to take frequent rest breaks against the ropes. At this point, Golovkin is still far too good for Canelo to beat him. Golovkin would likely use the Mayweather blueprint to beat Canelo by jabbing him a lot, and not giving him anything to counter. Canelo would then need to pressure Golovkin to try and land anything. That would play into Golovkin’s hands, because he would land single jabs and right hands to the head of Canelo as he plods forward. I think it would end badly for Canelo with him getting stunned by one of Golovkin’s big shots, and then taken out with body shots.
I think Canelo is going to have problems each time Golden Boy matches him tough. They’ve done a good job of steering Canelo around the better fighters since his controversial win over Lara. They did put Canelo in with Miguel Cotto in 2015, but that fight only proved that Canelo can beat a small and old junior middleweight. Let’s be honest. Cotto is still the same fighter that Austin Trout beat in 2012. The only thing that’s changed is he’s been matched more carefully since that time in being put in with an old and broken down Sergio Martinez, and matched against guys like Delvin Rodriguez and Daniel Geale. Cotto didn’t get better after his loss to Trout. His match-making got better by him being put in with guys that he could beat. Canelo’s win over Cotto proved nothing. Canelo is still the same fighter that Lara, Trout and Mayweather got the better of. Canelo will have major problems if he’s put in with Golovkin, Jacobs and the best 154lb fighters.
